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A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD rallies to meet 6-month high near 0.6800

AUDUSD creates higher highs and higher lows Momentum oscillators show mixed signs AUDUSD skyrocketed to another fresh six-month high of 0.6797 on Thursday, creating the ninth consecutive green day. Since mid-April, the pair has been developing an upward trend. However, the technical oscillators show mixed signs. The stochastic is heading south, but the RSI is crossing the 70 level to the upside.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Midweek Technical Look – EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY

EURUSD still finds strong support at 1.0800 AUDUSD posts new 6-month high  GBPJPY records extraordinary bullish rally towards uncharted levels
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD posts a fresh 6-month high

AUDUSD breaks decisively above sideways pattern The price jumps to its highest since January 2024 Oscillators are flagging overbought conditions AUDUSD had been trading in a neutral range for more than two months, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. However, in the last few sessions, the bulls have managed to propel the pair above that rangebound structure, sending it to a six-month high on Thursday.
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China’s problems could cloud RBA’s hawkish intentions – Preview

China to gain more airtime this week The ailing housing sector and the bond rally in focus RBA remains hawkish, but consumer appetite is critical Aussie benefits from dollar weakness Market’s focus could turn to China this week The post non-farm payrolls week tends to be a quiet one as the market digests the latest developments and prepares for the next risk events.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD records new 6-month high

AUDUSD posts bullish days above descending channel 20- and 50-day SMAs slope up MACD and RSI confirm upside move AUDUSD is skyrocketing towards a fresh six-month high of 0.6737, breaking the downward sloping channel to the downside and surpassing the 0.6710-0.6730 region. Technically, the MACD oscillator leapt above its trigger and zero lines, while the RSI rises above its neutral threshold of 50. The 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are pointing upwards as well.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD challenges upper limit of its range

AUDUSD attempts to break above sideways structure Oscillators are heavily tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. However, in the last two sessions, the bulls have been testing the upper end of the neutral pattern, where a decisive break could trigger a sharp move to the upside.
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AUDUSD develops in an upward sloping channel RSI and MACD continue the upside move AUDUSD is creating several green 4-hour sessions after the bounce off the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). The pair has been trading within an ascending channel since June 17, with immediate resistance at 0.6687 that failed a couple of times to break it.
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Investors await NFP to validate their Fed rate cut bets – Preview

Investors expect two rate cuts, even though Fed signals one Recent data corroborates investors’ take Nonfarm payrolls waited for more confirmation The report comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT   Fed appears hawkish, but data paint a different picture At its latest gathering, the FOMC appeared more hawkish than expected, revising its interest rate projections from three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year to just one.
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Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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Market Comment – Core PCE in focus ahead of French elections

Dollar gains after first presidential debate Focus today turns to core PCE inflation Yen slides, intervention risks rise French citizens head to the ballots on Sunday Trump election win bets support dollar The US dollar traded slightly lower against most of its major peers on Thursday, extending gains only against the yen and the franc.
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Market Comment – Stocks’ asthmatic reaction keeps dollar in demand

US stocks edge higher amidst quiet newsflow French elections are around the corner Aussie and loonie benefit from hotter CPI reports Yen remains under pressure Dollar records small gains against the euro The US dollar is trying to find its footing as the market prepares for Thursday’s presidential debate between Trump and Biden and Friday’s PCE inflation report.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week.
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Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD extends sideways movement

AUDUSD trades back and forth within its range The ascending 50-day SMA acts as a strong floor Oscillators remain tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now as the price has been unable to jump above the five-month high of 0.6713. However, the pair’s downside also seems to be capped by the upward sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
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Market Comment – Fedspeak and US retail sales could test dollar’s resilience

Fedspeak could prove market-moving this week Retail sales could surprise on the downside RBA members discussed again to hike rates Dollar still in charge but aussie rallies Fed speakers to move the market again? Amidst a holiday-shortened week, Fed speakers will be out in force, and it will be interesting to see if the hawks adopt an even more aggressive rhetoric.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF

GBPUSD holds a bearish bias ahead of UK inflation, BoE rate decision AUDUSD retains neutral outlook as all eyes turn to the RBA policy decision USDCHF sustains 0.8890 floor; Will the SNB trigger the next bull wave?   BoE rate decision --> GBPUSD UK CPI inflation and the Bank of England’s rate decision could produce a new wave of volatility for GBPUSD on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
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Market Comment – Euro extends losses on French election jitters

Euro hits 6-week low as risk premium for French debt jumps But equities mixed as selloff eases Trio of central bank decisions eyed Euro rocked by fresh fears of a debt crisis Concerns about the real risk of a far-right government in France continue to dog the euro after they resurfaced towards the end of last week. Having shed more than 1% so far in June, the euro is struggling to hold on to the $1.07 level on Monday and is currently trading at more than six-week lows.
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RBA policy meeting may be muted; aussie remains choppy – Preview

RBA interest rate expected to remain unchanged Sticky inflation and economy’s uncertainty still a concern Aussie holds in downward channel ahead of Tuesday’s decision at 04:30 GMT Australia’s uncertain economy and sustained inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its June policy decision early on Tuesday, likely maintaining the central bank's agenda.
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