Bitcoin has not only started the new year on the front foot, but also seems to be steadily extending its rebound as it is on track to post its strongest January performance since 2013. These latest gains have pushed Bitcoin prices to their highest levels in five months and could be attributed to mean reversion after a devastating year in which the king of cryptos lost around 64% of its value. Is this latest rally justifiable or are the January effect and some naive positivity the main driving forces behind this advance?

Cryptos move in lockstep with stocks

Bitcoin has gained around 40% since the beginning of the year, climbing to levels not seen after FTX’s blow-up. A general improvement in risk sentiment, which is evident in the stock markets’ solid performance, coupled with consecutive data points that tilt towards a Fed slowdown have been backing up this recovery. Additionally, today,  the famous Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached its ‘Greed’ territory for the first time since March of 2022, suggesting that bullish pressures in crypto markets are intensifying.

Looking forward, investors will be closely eyeing how the Fed is willing to proceed with its monetary tightening cycle. However, it seems that market participants are focusing solely on expectations of rate cuts next year and on how the US economy will enter a recovery phase, without paying much attention to the fact that all leading indicators are signaling a recession in the meantime. Therefore, cryptocurrencies do not seem to be out of the woods yet, while they could revisit their 2022 lows in the event of a severe recession.

FTX reveals creditor list as new scandals emerge

FTX finally unveiled its complete list of corporate and institutional creditors but did not report the names of its 9.6 million retail and individual creditors. Interestingly, the list is composed of US and international government agencies, tech firms, banks, media outlets, charities, marketing agencies and even universities. Some of the largest names included in this list are Meta, Netflix, Apple, Goldman Sachs, Wall Street Journal and others. This latest development highlights once more that the contagion from collapses within the crypto industry has spilled over to many sectors and businesses, thus stricter regulations are needed to shield the broader economy from more damage.

In other news, one of the largest crypto exchanges, Coinbase, was fined $3.6 million for operating in the Netherlands without complying with the local legislations set by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) - the country's central bank. Moreover, Binance has been facing legal and reputational troubles lately, as it is said to have processed crypto transactions of around $346 million for the Bitzlato digital currency exchange, whose founder was arrested by the US authorities for money laundering.

Onwards and upwards

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has been in a steady uptrend since the beginning of 2023, marching to a fresh 5-month high of $23,821 on Thursday before experiencing a minor pullback. Can this rally persist or are we heading towards a correction?

In the positive scenario, should the price close above the January high, further advances could then cease at the August peak of $25,200. Higher, the bulls could aim for the $27,960 support, which could now act as resistance.

On the flipside, should Bitcoin reverse lower, initial support could be met at the recent low of $22,300 before the $20,385 hurdle comes under examination.