Technical Analysis – EURCAD confused ahead of key central bank decisions



EURCAD has been trending downwards since the strong rejection near February’s descending trendline and the 1.3243 level at the start of the month, while also failing to attract enough buying interest to climb back above its simple moving averages (SMA) in the four-hour chart over the past few days.

The technical signals remain neutral-to-bearish ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement due at 14:00 GMT today given the RSI’s sideways trajectory marginally below its 50 neutral mark and the flattening MACD, which keeps fluctuating around its red signal line and below zero.

Nevertheless, the bulls might have another chance to fight back if the tentative support trendline at 1.3000 stands firm once again. In case it cracks though, the 1.2960 barrier may provide some footing. Otherwise, the bearish wave could pick up steam towards August's nine-year low of 1.2874 and the nearby 1.2845 handle, a break of which may strengthen the long-term downtrend towards the 1.2720 barrier last seen at the end of 2012.

On the upside, the 1.3050 – 1.3080 zone will be closely watched. A successful move above that wall could gain another leg towards the intraday swing high of 1.3163, though only a decisive close above the trendline and the 1.3200 round level would boost buying confidence in the market. Higher, the bulls will try to challenge the neutral trajectory above the 1.3246 – 1.3290 resistance zone.

In brief, EURCAD traders are looking indecisive in the short-term picture at the moment, likely waiting for a close below 1.3000 or above the 1.3050-1.3080 region to navigate the market accordingly.  

Note that the European Central Bank will also set its policy on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.

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