Technical Analysis – EURJPY rebounds but downside risks remain in force

EURJPY is drifting across the 129.61 level, which happens to be the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 125.08 until 134.12, after the bearish correction bounced off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 200-day SMA is defending the positive structure, while the 100- and 50-day SMAs are suggesting that negative powers are still active. The flattening of the 100-day SMA as well as a possible bearish crossover of it by the 50-day SMA is further signalling a tendency in the pair to steer lower.

The Ichimoku lines are indicating that buyers are fighting to regain buoyancy, while the short-term oscillators are revealing a persisting negative tone in the pair. The MACD is above its red trigger line but is demonstrating weak upside momentum, failing to climb to the zero threshold. The RSI is also struggling to boost upside impetus as it floats beneath the 50-level. On top of this, the negative charge in the stochastic oscillator is promoting additional deterioration in the pair.

If sellers manage to drive the pair below the 50.0% Fibo at 129.61, they may promptly encounter a durable support base of 128.28-128.82, which encapsulates the 61.8% Fibo of 128.54 and the 200-day SMA. Diving beneath this vital floor could then lead the pair to test the 127.30 border before the bears target the February 4 trough of 126.09.

Otherwise, if positive traction develops at the 50.0% Fibo, early upside friction could transpire between the red Tenkan-sen line at 130.05 and the blue Kijun-sen line at 130.50. From here, buyers would need to muster profound buying interest to overcome the resistance zone moulded between the 131.00 hurdle and the 50-day SMA at 131.50. Conquering this critical barricade could then propel the price to challenge the 132.34-132.87 barrier.

Summarizing, EURJPY’s short-term negative forces have yet to fully abate and a break beneath the 200-day SMA and the 128.28 trough could boost downside price action.



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