Technical Analysis – GBPJPY chases soft gains; short-term outlook somewhat gloomy

GBPJPY found strong footing around its longer-term 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) this week, but the price could only gradually strengthen to 154.80 since then, unable to recoup January's losses.

While the 50- and 200-day SMAs have escaped a bearish crossover, feeding speculation that the broad uptrend has not finished yet, the short-term outlook is still looking cloudy. Despite today’s buying appetite, the price continues to trade below its 20-day SMA at 155.68 and within the lower bearish Bollinger area. Moreover, the RSI has yet to climb above its 50 neutral mark despite its ongoing positive momentum, whilst the MACD remains muted below its signal line and around zero.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 148.96 – 157.75 up leg has been capping upside movements the past two days at 154.40. Should the pair sustain its positive momentum above it, the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger band) and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 155.68 could immediately constrain the bullish action. If not, the rebound could stretch towards the uptrend’s top surface of 157.75 – 158.20. The 160.00 psychological mark, last seen in 2016, could be the next target.

On the downside, a step below the longer-term SMAs and the 50% Fibonacci both at 153.35, would shift all eyes towards the strict ascending trendline, which connects the 2020 lows with December’s trough of 148.96 and intersects the 61.8% Fibonacci of 151.75. A close lower from here could easily drive the price towards the 148.96 bottom. A step beneath 148.00 could activate a steeper decline towards the 144.50 region and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 143.52.

To summarize, GBPJPY is fighting for a soft positive weekly close as downside risks keep lingering in the background. An extension above 155.68 could eliminate any anxiety.  

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