Technical Analysis – NZDUSD steers to 13-month low levels but still neutral



NZDUSD has detached from the converged simple moving averages (SMAs) and has dipped below the multiple lower wicks of the candles from January 6 till the 11. The stabilized SMAs are endorsing a more neutral trajectory in the price as the pair remains rangebound, oscillating between the 0.6678-0.6700 floor and a 0.6890-0.6910 ceiling.

The falling Ichimoku lines are indicating that negative forces are commanding lately, while the short-term oscillators are suggesting that the price may test the floor of the one-month sideways market. The MACD, in the bearish region, is diving further below its red trigger line, while the RSI is nearing the 30 oversold barrier. The stochastic oscillator is sustaining its negative charge, but the %K line is hinting of possible stalling in downside momentum.

Heading lower, preliminary support could arise at the critical 0.6678-0.6700 section. In the event selling interest intensifies and the price breaks beneath the floor of the range, sellers may then target the key 0.6612 and 0.6588 neighbouring troughs from the start of November 2020. Should the negative trajectory endure, the next downside barrier to overcome lies around 0.6551.

If buyers re-emerge and drive the price back over the immediate 0.6732 and 0.6752 obstacles (previous support-now-resistance), the Ichimoku lines could delay an overshoot in the price. That said, for upside momentum to strengthen, the bulls would need to surpass a resistance section located between the 200-period SMA at 0.6787 and the Ichimoku cloud’s lower band at 0.6810. Piloting higher, the price may test the 0.6849 and 0.6873 boundaries respectively before buyers can challenge the 0.6890-0.6910 ceiling to the horizontal price zone.

Summarizing, NZDUSD is exhibiting an increase in downward forces and has neared the lower end of the trading range. Yet, for the neutral-to-bearish tone to turn bearish, the price would need to break below the 0.6678-0.6700 floor. On the other hand, the picture could become optimistic with a climb in the price north of the 0.6890-0.6910 barricade.

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