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Technical Analysis – WTI crude oil fails to improve upside move

  • WTI crude finds tough obstacle at 200-day SMA

  • Technical oscillators head south

WTI crude oil returned above the medium-term ascending trend line, hitting the strong 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 79.36 after bouncing off the four-month low of 72.46.

The technical oscillators are indicating a negative retracement in the short-term view. The RSI is sloping slightly down near the 50 level, while the stochastic oscillator posted a bearish crossover between the %K and %D lines in the overbought area.

If the market has a successful attempt above the 200-day SMA and the near-term downtrend line, it may challenge the 50-day SMA at 79.86 ahead of the 80.63 barrier. Above this area, the 84.45 obstacle and the almost six-month high of 87.00 could be the levels that may change the outlook back to a bullish one.

On the flip side, if the market dives below the 20-day SMA and the rising trend line, immediate support could come from 72.46 and the 71.50 bar.

To sum up, oil prices are creating an upside recovery but as the market remains beneath the 200-day SMA and the short-term downtrend line, the bias is still titled to the downside.  

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