Technical Analysis – Nike stock bounces back from 2½-year low but outlook still bearish

Nike stock has staged an impressive rebound from the two-and-a-half year low of 82.08 plumbed on October 3 but it nevertheless remains deep in bearish territory. The RSI has climbed out of the oversold region, though it is some distance away from reaching the 50 neutral level. The MACD histogram appears to be bottoming out but is not yet near to crossing above the red signal line, which is still falling.

Moreover, although the price has jumped back above the lower Bollinger band, it still has a lot of ground to cover before it comes within close proximity to the middle Bollinger band, which is also the 20-day moving average (MA).

In the immediate term, there is a danger that the positive momentum will ebb if the stock is unable to overcome resistance at the Tenkan-sen line in the 91.00 region. A break higher towards the Kijun-sen line at 97.65 is needed to strengthen the bullish bias but the downside risks won’t be eliminated until the price has recovered all the way up to the Ichimoku cloud. Consequently, the 20- and 50-day moving averages, at 99.54 and 106.80 respectively, are additional obstacles that can get in the way of shifting the bearish outlook to neutral.

Failure to crack above 91.00 could see the price revising the 82.08 low, after which attention would turn to the March 2020 troughs, starting with the 74.00 level and then 60.00.

In brief, although the price has reversed higher, the rebound is still in its infancy and a foothold above the Tenkan-sen line could help make it more sustainable. On the other hand, another breach of the lower Bollinger band would reinforce the negative longer-term outlook. 

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