Technical Analysis - US 500 index at fresh top of 4,355; upside risks look sturdy



The US 500 stock index (Cash) is consolidating in the vicinity of the 4,350 level, after spiking to a new all-time high of 4,355 on Friday, the former being the 150.0% Fibonacci extension of the down leg from 4,244 until 4,034. The rising simple moving averages (SMAs) are endorsing the bullish picture, while the Ichimoku lines are mirroring a pause in positive momentum.

The short-term oscillators are currently mixed as the price persists around its highs. The MACD is far above the zero mark and is keeping above its red trigger line, while the RSI is gradually ticking higher in overbought territory. In contrast, the stochastic oscillator has shifted to bearish but it remains to be seen whether the negative charge could endure.

If selling interest intensifies, early support could develop at the red Tenkan-sen line at 4,336 and from the 4,317 latest low. If the price retraces below the blue Kijun-sen line, the bears could face a support belt of 4,294-4,300, formed between the 50-period SMA and the 4,300 handle. Should negative pressures gain the upper hand, the price may then be guided to the 4,275 barrier within the Ichimoku cloud. A deeper price pullback may bring the 100-period SMA at 4,261 into play, followed by the June 23 trough of 4,240.

Alternatively, if buyers manage to step above the 150.0% Fibo extension of 4,350 and pilot past the all-time high of 4,355, the 161.8% Fibo extension of 4,374 could become the next resistance target. Should the index remain buoyant, the bulls could be encouraged to navigate towards the 176.4% Fibo extension of 4,405.

In conclusion, the index is sustaining its bullish demeanour above the 4,300 hurdle and the SMAs. As things stand, a break below the June 21 trough of 4,060 would be needed to cause a dent in the positive structure.

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