Technical Analysis – GBPUSD extends recovery, but still in downtrend

GBPUSD climbed higher on Thursday but met resistance today at 1.1228, still below the short-term downtrend line drawn from the high of August 10 as well as below the longer-term downside line taken from the high of March 23. This keeps the prevailing downtrend intact but given that the pair has been forming higher lows on the 4-hour chart this week, a break below 1.0765 may be needed to signal that the bears are back in full control.

The RSI lies near its 70 line but it has shifted down lately, while the MACD remains above both its zero and trigger lines, still pointing up. The mixed indications provided by the oscillators enhance the view that traders may need to wait for clearer signals before they become confident on a downtrend continuation.

A dip below 1.0765 could confirm the break below the line connecting the higher lows formed this week and may encourage the bears to dive towards Wednesday’s low of 1.0540. If they don’t exit the action from around there, a break lower could carry the losses towards Monday’s low of 1.0325.

On the upside, a break above 1.1465 could confirm the break above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) as well as the breach of the downtrend line drawn from the high of August 10. That said, this may only signal a larger upside correction, perhaps towards the high of September 13 at 1.1735 or the longer-term downside line taken from back in March. A trend reversal might be put on the table upon a decisive break above the 1.1900 area, marked by the high of August 26.

In brief, GBPUSD extended its latest recovery but remained below two important downside lines, something that keeps the prevailing downtrend intact. Nonetheless, the fact that the pair has been printing higher lows this week, likely paints a neutral picture in the short run.

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