Technical Analysis – GBPUSD rejected from 8½-month high; next level 1.30

GBPUSD has reversed back down again after finding resistance at the eight-and-a-half-month high of 1.3487 achieved last week.

The momentum indicators are pointing to a neutral to negative bias in the short term with the RSI holding near the 50 level and the MACD oscillator falling below the trigger line in the positive zone. Moreover, the price declined below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and is heading towards the five-month ascending trend line.

Further losses should see the 40-day SMA, which stands marginally above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 1.1409 to 1.3487 at 1.3000, acting as a major support. A drop below this level would reinforce the bearish movement in the short-term as the diagonal line would be penetrated to test 1.2815. Even lower, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2693, which overlaps with the 100-day SMA is coming next.

In the event of an upside reversal, the latest top of 1.3487 could act as a barrier before being able to re-challenge 1.3605, taken from the high on May 2018. A break above this level would shift the outlook back to strongly bullish meeting the inside swing low of 1.3710, registered in February 2018.

Summarizing, GBPUSD has been in a bullish structure in the medium term and any decreases below the uptrend line could shift the outlook to neutral.

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