Technical Analysis – JP 225 index defends bulls, but not out of the woods yet

Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) stepped on the resistance trendline and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 27,800 to defend its latest bullish break out of the bearish channel on Wednesday, but negative risks have not completely faded out.

While the bullish intersection between the 20- and 200-day SMAs is promoting further trend improvement, the momentum indicators have been oscillating against the market action recently, with the RSI and the stochastics making lower lows and lower highs and the MACD losing pace marginally below its red signal line.

If the index cements the floor at 27,800, the bulls may attempt to pass the constraining zone of 28,649 – 28,800. A successful break higher could bring January’s high of 29,390 in sight ahead of the 30,000 psychological mark.

In the event the bears retake control, pressing the price below the 20- and 50-day SMAs at 27,800 and 27,500 respectively, the sell-off could exacerbate towards the former support zone of 26,850. A continuous decline could then push for a close below the base of 26,230.

Summarizing, the JP 225 index is still facing the potential for a downside reversal despite its latest upside move, though only a significant fall below the 27,800 – 27,500 area might scare traders.

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