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Brokerages lift S&P 500 target on hopes for soft landing, rate cuts



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Updates with UBS Global Research's S&P 500, currencies and bonds targets; real GDP growth forecasts for Deutsche Bank, BofA and UBS Global Research; U.S. CPI data for May

June 12 (Reuters) -Brokerages have raised their year-end targets for the U.S. stocks benchmark S&P 500 .SPX, spurred by expectations of a "soft landing" for the economy and growing odds the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:


Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:


S&P 500 target

US 10-year yield target

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CNY

Goldman Sachs

5,200

4.00%

1.12

145

7.05

Morgan Stanley

4,500


1

140

7.5

UBS Global Wealth Management*

5,200

3.85%

1.09

148

7.25

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

5,100-5,300

4.25-4.75%

1.06-1.10

156-160


Barclays

5,300

4.25%

1.09

145

7.20

J.P.Morgan

4,200

3.75%

1.13

146

7.25

BofA Global Research

5,400

4.25%

1.12

155

7.45

Deutsche Bank


5,500

4.60%

1.07

135


Citigroup

5,100

4.30%

1.02

135

7.25

HSBC

5,400

3.00%

1.05

145

7.10


Oppenheimer


5,500





UBS Global Research*

5,600

4.0%

1.05

160

7.15


* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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U.S. INFLATION

U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedlyunchanged in May amid cheaper gasoline, but inflation likely remains too high for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates before September against the backdrop of a persistently strong labor market.


U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)


Headline CPI

Core PCE

Goldman Sachs

2.50%

2.5%

Morgan Stanley

2.10%

2.70%

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

3.0%

2.60%

Barclays

2.70%

2.4%

J.P.Morgan

2.50%

2.50%

BofA Global Research

3.5%

2.8%

Deutsche Bank

3.10%


Citigroup

2.0%

3.0%

HSBC

3.4%


-----


Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024


GLOBAL

U.S.

CHINA

EURO AREA

UK

INDIA

Goldman Sachs

2.7%

2.6%

5.0%

0.8%

0.9%

6.6%

Morgan Stanley

2.8%

1.9%

4.2%

0.5%

-0.1%

6.4%

UBS Global Wealth Management*

3.1%

2.4%

4.9%

0.6%

0.2%

7.0%

Barclays

2.6%

1.2%

4.4%

0.3%

0.1%

6.2%

J.P.Morgan

2.2%

1.6%

5.2%

0.4%

0.3%

5.7%

BofA Global Research

3.0%

2.5%

5.0%

0.6%

0.3%

5.8%

Deutsche Bank

3.2%

2.4%

5.2%

0.9%

0.8%

7.0%

Citigroup

1.9%

1.0%

4.6%

-0.2%

0.1%

6.3%


HSBC

2.6%

2.3%

4.9%

0.5%

0.4%

6.3%

UBS Global Research*

3.1%

2.3%

4.9%

0.6%

0.2%

7.0%


(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila and Anil D'Silva)

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