Crown stable as markets expect another hefty rate hike
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, June 22 (Reuters) - Most central European currencies were steady on Wednesday ahead of a meeting of the Czech National Bank where policymakers are widely expected to deliver another hefty rate hike in an attempt to curb rapid inflation.
The crown EURCZK= edged 0.03% lower to 24.697 per euro ahead of the meeting where a Reuters poll of analysts expect a 100-basis-point or 125-basis-point hike in the key two-week repo rate, now at 5.75%.
The expectation of a large rate hike was one of the "reasons why EUR-CZK has remained steadier than other peer currencies over the past month," Commerzbank wrote in a note.
"But since it is priced-in, we would not expect further exchange rate appreciation from this outcome."
The crown has been the best performer among its CEE peers so far this year as it has added more than 0.7% since the beginning of 2022.
This will be the last meeting of the CNB before incoming governor Ales Michl takes over. Michl has consistently voted against rate hikes during the central bank's year-long tightening cycle, which has raised the main rate by a total of 550 basis points.
However, his promise of no more rate hikes will be tested right away by soaring inflation and a hawkish turn among major central banks.
Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= edged up 0.1% to 394.00 per euro, while the Polish zloty EURPLN= slid 0.35% to trade at 4.6535 versus the common currency.
"Today, a regional source of volatility may be the meeting of the Czech central bank," Bank Millennium wrote.
"Locally, this may also be a source of additional pressure on the Polish Monetary Policy Council, but we do not believe that it is so strong that it could significantly affect the valuation of Polish assets."
Stocks in the central European region slid, tracking European peers lower, resuming a sell-off that had hammered global stocks last week.
Warsaw's index .WIG20 was down 2.33% while Budapest .BUX weakened 1.7%. Prague .PX shed 0.93% while Bucharest .BETI eased 0.3%.
CEE
SNAPSHOT
AT
MARKETS
1003 CET
CURRENCIES
Latest
Previous Daily Change
bid
close
change in
2022 Czech
EURCZK=
24.6970 24.6900 -0.03% +0.71 crown
% Hungary
EURHUF=
394.0000 394.4000 +0.10 -6.25% forint
% Polish
EURPLN=
4.6535
4.6370 -0.35% -1.34% zloty
Romanian
EURRON=
4.9470
4.9455 -0.03% +0.02 leu
% Croatian
EURHRK=
7.5170
7.5195 +0.03 +0.01 kuna
%
% Serbian
EURRSD=
117.3400 117.4500 +0.09 +0.20 dinar
%
% Note:
calculated from
1800
daily
CET
change
Latest
Previous Daily Change
close
change in
2022 Prague
.PX
1306.51 1318.770 -0.93%
0
Budapest
.BUX
40241.32 40936.77 -1.70% -20.66
% Warsaw
.WIG20
1678.92 1719.05 -2.33% -25.94
% Bucharest .BETI
12339.46 12377.09 -0.30% -5.53% Ljubljana .SBITOP
1131.05 1137.52 -0.57% -9.91% Zagreb
.CRBEX
2006.36 2006.36 +0.00 -3.51%
% Belgrade
.BELEX15
827.41
832.97 -0.67% +0.81
% Sofia
.SOFIX
614.79
616.25 -0.24% -3.29%
Yield
Yield
Spread Daily
(bid)
change
vs
change
Bund
in Czech
spread Republic
2-year
CZ2YT=RR
6.6710 -0.0050 +560b +6bps
ps 5-year
CZ5YT=RR
6.1210 -0.0380 +466b +4bps
ps 10-year <CZ10YT=RR
5.7360 -0.0320 +404b +4bps
>
ps Poland
2-year
PL2YT=RR
7.9270 -0.1400 +686b -7bps
ps 5-year
PL5YT=RR
7.9200 -0.1800 +646b -10bps
ps 10-year <PL10YT=RR
7.4830 -0.2460 +579b -17bps
>
ps
FORWARD
3x6
6x9
9x12
3M
interb
ank Czech Rep CZKFRA <P
7.66
7.79
7.73
6.60
RIBOR=>
Hungary
HUFFRA <B
9.40
10.01 10.07
7.66
UBOR=>
Poland
PLNFRA <W
8.18
8.35
8.33
6.94
IBOR=>
Note: FRA are for ask prices
quotes
*****************************************************
*********
Additional reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips
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