Forint eases before likely rate cut, zloty hits new high



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Forint eases before likely rate cut, zloty hits new high</title></head><body>

By Jason Hovet

PRAGUE, Nov 21 (Reuters) -The forint pulled further away from a multi-month high on Tuesday, ahead of a likely interest cut by Hungary's central bank later in the day.

The Hungarian currency led general weakness in central Europe, although Poland's zloty touched a fresh three-year high in early trading before easing to trade at 4.363 to the euro.

The forint hit a four-month high at 375.55 to the euro last week, but has since eased and dropped beyond the psychological 380 level on Tuesday, down less than 0.1% at 380.30 at 1027 GMT.

The National Bank of Hungary is expected to cut its base rate by another 75 basis points to 11.5% on Tuesday, according to a Reuters poll, maintaining its pace of easing.

Despite cutting since May, Hungary's benchmark rate is still the highest in the European Union, supporting the forint.

"The market continues to price in more and more rate cuts, which is in line with our forecast," ING said. "However, the impact on FX here is unclear. If the market wants to catch up with the divergence in recent weeks, it would mean a significant sell-off in HUF.

"This is unlikely to be the case, but we could still see further losses today with the NBH's confirmation that rate cuts are continuing."

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= touched its highest level since March 2020, in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

A less dovish Polish central bank and hopes of EU funds being renewed has boosted the currency, which has been the best performing central European currency since a mid-October election, gaining more than 3%.

Elsewhere, stock markets were mixed and the Czech crown EURCZK= remained stuck in the middle of a range around 24.50 with markets unsure whether a start to interest rate cuts - like in Hungary and Poland - will begin by the end of the year.

"A relatively good sentiment on stock markets and a weak dollar are keeping the crown on a positive wave," bank CSOB said.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1127 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




bid

close

change

in 2023

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.5150

24.5120

-0.01%

-1.46%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

380.3000

380.0000

-0.08%

+5.03%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3625

4.3575

-0.11%

+7.50%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9710

4.9725

+0.03%

-0.57%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0800

117.1800

+0.09%

+0.19%


Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2023

.PX

Prague

.PX

1384.89

1386.7600

-0.13%

+15.24%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

56824.43

56895.03

-0.12%

+29.75%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2258.72

2250.55

+0.36%

+26.04%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

14713.18

14661.61

+0.35%

+26.15%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

4.8240

-0.1730

+181bps

-17bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.1280

-0.0490

+157bps

-4bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2450

-0.0350

+165bps

-1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.3370

-0.0100

+232bps

-1bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.2780

-0.0260

+272bps

-1bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4730

-0.0440

+288bps

-2bps



FORWARD








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

6.38

5.34

4.33

7.08


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

9.49

7.93

7.09

10.95


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.72

5.40

5.07

5.83


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************












Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Alexander Smith

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