FX muted as markets eye Polish cenbank meeting, Hungarian CPI data



By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Central European currencies were range-bound on Monday as investors looked ahead to a rate-setting meeting of the central bank in Poland and the publication of key inflation data in Hungary, both scheduled for later in the week.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= eased 0.15% to 4.6920, trading in its recent range as investors eyed a meeting of the monetary policy council on Wednesday where a Reuters poll of analysts forecast the key interest rate to remain at 6.75%.

The National Bank of Poland has held fire at its last two meetings, as the argument for stable rates was boosted by data showing a decrease in inflation in November, as well as third-quarter GDP data that pointed to a slowdown in private consumption.

Governor Adam Glapinski will hold a press conference at 1400 GMT on Thursday.

"We expect the current wait-and-see attitude to be maintained, which is consistent with the market scenario and should not translate into volatility of both the Polish currency and treasury bonds," Bank Millennium wrote.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.18% higher and trading at 409.50 per euro in thin trade as investors eyed CPI data due to be published on Thursday.

"The first thing that could really move the forint's rate this week is inflation," an FX trader in Budapest said.

"If it overshoots expectations, that could weaken the forint."

A Reuters poll expects headline inflation to rise to an annual 22.2% in November from 21.1% in October.

Annual inflation was now primarily driven by a surge in food prices, where further "unpleasant surprises" could be on the cards in coming months, the central bank said last month.

Data showed on Monday that October calendar-adjusted retail sales edged up by an annual 0.6%, down from a 3% increase in September as the toll of high inflation hit consumer activity in Hungary.

In the Czech Republic, real wages fell by nearly 10% for a second quarter as inflation eats into paychecks.

Czech central bank Governor Ales Michl said on Monday that drop in commodity prices could signal a slowdown in the world economy that would help ease inflation.

The Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.04% to trade at 24.380 versus the common currency.

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Warsaw .WIG20 adding 1.42%, while Budapest .BUX lost 1.64%.

CEE

SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS

1040

CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest

Previo Daily Change

us

bid

close change in

2022 EURCZK Czech

EURCZK=

24.3800 24.390 +0.04 +2.02 =

crown

0

%

% EURHUF Hungary EURHUF= 409.5000 410.25 +0.18 -9.79% =

forint

00

% EURPLN Polish

EURPLN=

4.6920 4.6850 -0.15% -2.15% =

zloty

EURRON Romania EURRON=

4.9230 4.9201 -0.06% +0.51 =

n leu

% EURHRK Croatia EURHRK=

7.5500 7.5495 -0.01% -0.43% =

n kuna

EURRSD Serbian EURRSD= 117.2000 117.31 +0.10 +0.32 =

dinar

50

%

%

Note:

calculate

1800

daily

d from

CET

change

Latest

Previo Daily Change

us

close change in

2022 .PX

Prague

.PX

1208.42 1198.6 +0.82

200

% .BUX

Budapes .BUX

45053.80 45804. -1.64% -11.17

t

29

% .WIG20 Warsaw

.WIG20

1758.07 1733.4 +1.42 -22.45

6

%

% .BETI Buchare .BETI

12118.09 11924. +1.62 -7.22%

st

70

% .SBITO Ljublja .SBITOP

1073.19 1071.5 +0.15 -14.52 P

na

4

%

% .CRBEX Zagreb

.CRBEX

1916.29 1919.4 -0.16% -7.84%

4

.BELEX Belgrad <.BELEX15

811.56 813.97 -0.30% -1.12% 15

e

>

.SOFIX Sofia

.SOFIX

606.05 605.43 +0.10 -4.66%

%

Yield

Yield Spread Daily

(bid)

change vs

change

Bund

in

Czech

spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT=

<CZ2YT=RR

5.5920 0.0070 +347b +0bps RR

2-year >

ps CZ5YT=

<CZ5YT=RR

4.9080 0.0060 +303b +0bps RR

5-year >

ps CZ10YT

<CZ10YT=R

4.6560 0.0170 +281b +2bps =RR

10-year R>

ps

Poland

PL2YT=

<PL2YT=RR

6.7920 0.0060 +467b +0bps RR

2-year >

ps PL5YT=

<PL5YT=RR

6.6800 0.0290 +480b +2bps RR

5-year >

ps PL10YT

<PL10YT=R

6.4150 0.0010 +457b +1bps =RR

10-year R>

ps

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M

interb

ank

Czech

CZKFRA <

7.00

6.55

5.99

7.26

Rep

PRIBOR=>

Hungary HUFFRA <

14.16 12.72 11.81 15.46

BUBOR=>

Poland

PLNFRA <

7.16

7.00

6.61

7.24

WIBOR=>

Note:

are for

FRA

ask

quotes prices

************************************

**************************


Additional reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips

Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.

All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.

Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.

We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our website. Read more or change your cookie settings.

Risk Warning: Your capital is at risk. Leveraged products may not be suitable for everyone. Please consider our Risk Disclosure.