Italy's GDP could shrink in 2022-2023 if Russia gas flows stop - BOI

MILAN, May 31 (Reuters) - A stop to Russian gas flows could lead to a contraction in Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) on average in 2022-2023, central bank Governor Ignazio Visco warned on Tuesday.

In the text of a speech prepared for the Bank of Italy annual general meeting, Visco highlighted how the Italian and German economies were the worst hit by the Ukraine crisis given their high reliance on Russian gas and large, energy-intensive manufacturing sectors.

Visco said that, prior to the conflict, the Bank of Italy had expected the domestic economy would expand on average by more than 3% in 2022-2023.

"In April, we calculated that the protraction of the conflict in Ukraine could mean about 2 percentage points less growth overall, for this year and the next," Visco said

"However, more adverse developments cannot be ruled out. If the war should lead to an interruption in the supply of gas from Russia, GDP could decline on average over the two years."

Visco warned that economic growth remained key for Italy to sustain the weight of its public debt, adding that the recent widening in yield spreads between Italian and German government bonds drew attention to this element of "structural fragility".
Reporting by Valentina Za, Gavin Jones and Stefano Bernabei; editing by Agnieszka Flak

Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.

All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.

Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.

We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our website. Read more or change your cookie settings.

Risk Warning: Your capital is at risk. Leveraged products may not be suitable for everyone. Please consider our Risk Disclosure.