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South Africa's rand looks set for a big figure change

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June 13 (Reuters) -The rand is on its way to reversing three consecutive weeks' of losses versus the dollar and could push USD/ZAR below the 18.00 level as soon as next week.

There remains just enough uncertainty surrounding the Africa National Congress' (ANC) coalition to reverse some of this week's gains versus the dollar but there is also optimism for an ANC-Democratic Alliance link-up, which would be viewed positively by the market.

The ANC and DA's senior leadership will both meet on Thursday. Parties are in a race against time to secure a deal before the newly elected parliament sits on Friday.

Historically, the rand's performance in June leans slightly to the negative, with the currency having fallen for 14 out of the last 24 June months. With half the month to go, it's too early to draw conclusions but the rand is up and, while USD/ZAR trades below 18.8500, a bullish month for the ZAR is on the cards.

The weekly USD/ZAR chart does show support points at 18.2987, 18.2792 and 18.2275 - the Ichimoku cloud base, 10-day moving average and week-ending May 31 low, respectively.

However, while the rand appears impervious to U.S. data and the FOMC rate outlook, a positive coalition outcome could tip the scales in the currency's favour, pushing USD/ZAR below the 18.00 level.

For more click on FXBUZ

USD/ZAR weekly Ichimoku chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3XrOxhf

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)


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