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Reuters - 1 day ago

FX options wrap - volatility hit; Bears beware; Special flows

FX options wrap - volatility hit; Bears beware; Special flows The paring of recent banking crisis risk premiums and impending Easter holidays have pressured shorter dated and front end expiry implied volatility to longer term lows this week. The USD is broadly weaker but bears should beware versus EUR where option trade flows suggest that further losses will be a grind , especially above 1.1000. It's a similar situation in GBP/USD where there's been little interest to buy protection above 1.2500
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Reuters - 1 day ago

Euro gains as European inflation data indicates more rate rises ahead

FOREX-Euro gains as European inflation data indicates more rate rises ahead Updates prices, adds comment By Alun John and Tom Westbrook LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 31 (Reuters) - The euro was heading for its best week since mid-January on Friday after inflation data left markets positioned for more rate rises in the euro zone than in the United States, while the dollar index was set for a second consecutive quarterly loss.
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Reuters - 1 day ago

Latest G10 FX clues from forward looking FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-Latest G10 FX clues from forward looking FX options March 31 (Reuters) - Given their forward looking nature and correlation with FX moves, price action in FX options can often offer clues about market sentiment and expectations. A recent slump in FX option implied volatility is consistent with less actual volatility, certainly on a short term horizon, with many G10 benchmark 1-month expiries touching 2023 lows.
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Reuters - 1 day ago

Euro rises as euro zone countries report inflation data

FOREX-Euro rises as euro zone countries report inflation data Updates prices, adds comment By Alun John and Tom Westbrook LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 31 (Reuters) - The euro was set for its best week since mid January on Friday ahead of inflation data that will shape the ECB's interest rate plans, while investor expectations U.S. rates are near peaking meant the dollar headed for a second consecutive quarterly loss.
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Reuters - 1 day ago

Dollar eyes quarterly drop as rate rise bets recede

FOREX-Dollar eyes quarterly drop as rate rise bets recede Updates prices, adds comment By Tom Westbrook and Kevin Buckland SINGAPORE/TOKYO, March 31 (Reuters) - The dollar tracked toward a second consecutive quarterly loss on Friday, as investors see U.S. interest rates close to peaking and expect the dollar's yield advantage is in decline. A modest boost from a rush to safety around mid-March as banking jitters hit global markets seems to be fading, and the dollar index =USD is down 1.2% for th
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Reuters - 2 days ago

Dollar weakens as inflation data lifts euro

FOREX-Dollar weakens as inflation data lifts euro Updates to U.S. afternoon By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell to a 1-week low against the euro on Thursday as German inflation data helped lift the common currency and as concerns over the banking sector receded. Inflation eased significantly in Germany in March on the back of lower energy prices but was above forecasts, adding pressure on the European Central Bank to further tighten its monetary policy.
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Reuters - 2 days ago

Swiss National Bank still ready to sell forex, Maechler says

Swiss National Bank still ready to sell forex, Maechler says ZURICH, March 30 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank remains ready to intervene in the foreign currency markets to combat inflation despite hiking interest rates last week, governing board member Andrea Maechler said on Thursday. "In order to ensure appropriate monetary conditions, we remain prepared to be active on the foreign exchange market as needed," Maechler told an event in Zurich.
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Reuters - 2 days ago

EUR/USD topside potential - according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-EUR/USD topside potential - according to FX options March 30 (Reuters) - By their forward looking nature, FX options can show expectations for a currency pair and might offer some clues about EUR/USD's upside potential. Implied volatility is under pressure and that is consistent with a lower risk of actual volatility as the recent banking crisis fades.
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Reuters - 2 days ago

Friday's U.S. inflation data poses big challenge for dollar shorts

BUZZ-COMMENT-Friday's U.S. inflation data poses big challenge for dollar shorts March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. spending and inflation data due on Friday will be a big test for the dollar which traders have sold during recent banking turmoil on the assumption that U.S. interest rates will turn lower. The last data published on Feb. 24 showed a surge in spending and a rise in inflation, spurring expectations for much higher U.S.
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Reuters - 3 days ago

Finding value and cheap FX protection

BUZZ-COMMENT-Finding value and cheap FX protection March 29 (Reuters) - Simple options with a cash hedge rely on FX volatility to cover premiums and return profits - that's more likely as recovering risk appetite pressures implied volatility back to pre banking crisis lows. Volatility traders don't care so much about currency direction as its volatility.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

Japan's yen may come under great pressure

BUZZ-COMMENT-Japan's yen may come under great pressure March 27 (Reuters) - The yen, as the only remaining currency undermined by a negative interest rate, could under great pressure. This month's turmoil has driven down expectations for interest rates in the United States and also commodity prices which should influence central banks to slow or halt tightening cycles, and if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, others will follow.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

Japan banks' holdings of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds small - finmin

UPDATE 2-Japan banks' holdings of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds small - finmin Adds Suzuki quote, detail, background By Tetsushi Kajimoto and Leika Kihara TOKYO, March 28 (Reuters) - Japanese banks' holdings of Additional Tier-1 (AT1) bonds issued by Credit Suisse are small so the direct hit from them being written down to zero will be limited, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday.
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Reuters - 5 days ago

FX traders may be inclined to take more risks

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX traders may be inclined to take more risks March 27 (Reuters) - The environment created by recent turmoil is likely to encourage FX traders to take more risks. Stocks have proved to be quite resilient with S&P E-mini futures trading well above their level on the day Silicon Valley Bank folded, while the prices of crude oil are substantially cheaper and the path expected for U.S.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

Week Ahead-Bank stress and U.S. data are key focal points

BUZZ-COMMENT-Week Ahead-Bank stress and U.S. data are key focal points March 27 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil looks set to persist this week . Market pricing suggests continued volatility, with plenty of data trigger points lined up , until authorities reinforce their backstop for banks . Banks were pressured last Wednesday when U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen refused to give a blanket guarantee to depositors, and then again on Friday when Germany’s Deutsche Bank shares briefly tumbled alm
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Swiss franc grapples with safe-haven identity crisis after Credit Suisse

UPDATE 1-Swiss franc grapples with safe-haven identity crisis after Credit Suisse Swiss-centric crisis sees Swiss franc lose favour Investors shelter elsewhere, boosting gold, yen, bonds Swissie risk concentrated in Swiss economy - analyst Swiss franc's days as investment refuge are not over But currency is not an 'all-weather' haven - strategist Adds line about Switzerland's political neutrality, updates prices By Samuel Indyk LONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc hasn't lived up to its
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Reuters - 1 week ago

The appearance of safety spurs very risky FX trends

BUZZ-COMMENT-The appearance of safety spurs very risky FX trends March 24 (Reuters) - Crypto currencies have surged during recent turmoil which is the opposite of what is typically seen in uncertain periods when cash traditionally heads towards safer assets, and not the gambling implied by big gains for Bitcoin, Ether and even Dogecoin - created as a joke and surely the antithesis of a safe asset.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Swiss franc grapples with safe-haven identity crisis after Credit Suisse

Swiss franc grapples with safe-haven identity crisis after Credit Suisse Swiss-centric crisis sees Swiss franc lose favour Investors shelter elsewhere, boosting gold, yen, bonds Swissie risk concentrated in Swiss economy - analyst Swiss franc's days as investment refuge are not over But currency is not an 'all-weather' haven - strategist By Samuel Indyk LONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc hasn't lived up to its safe-haven reputation during the Credit Suisse collapse, as investors have s
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Dollar pares losses after central banks raise rates

FOREX-Dollar pares losses after central banks raise rates Updates prices, adds analyst comment By Hannah Lang WASHINGTON, March 23 (Reuters) - The dollar pared earlier losses on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve sounded close to calling time on interest rate hikes, while the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England pushed ahead with further rate increases.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Dollar falls for sixth day as central banks join Fed in raising rates

FOREX-Dollar falls for sixth day as central banks join Fed in raising rates Updates prices, adds FX table, adds analyst comment By Hannah Lang and Samuel Indyk WASHINGTON/LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - The dollar headed on Thursday for its longest losing streak in 2-1/2 years after the U.S. Federal Reserve sounded close to calling time on interest rate hikes, while the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England pushed ahead with further rate increases.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Dollar falls for sixth day; BoE, SNB, Norges Bank raise rates

FOREX-Dollar falls for sixth day; BoE, SNB, Norges Bank raise rates By Samuel Indyk and Tom Westbrook LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 23 (Reuters) - The dollar headed on Thursday for its longest losing streak in 2-1/2 years after the Federal Reserve sounded close to calling time on interest rate hikes, while the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England pushed ahead with further rate increases.
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