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EURUSD


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Week Ahead – Rate cut hopes rest on US jobs report and Eurozone flash CPI

Nonfarm payrolls report and European flash CPI to shape rate cut bets ISM PMIs to also be important for Fed expectations and US dollar Canadian employment and Chinese PMIs also on the agenda Fed hawks rear their ugly heads The March round of policy meetings reinforced June as the likely date when most central banks will begin cutting rates.
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Euro loses altitude ahead of inflation stats – Preview

Euro has been struggling lately as US dollar gained momentum Next round of inflation data is due on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT  Overall, outlook for the euro seems negative at this stage   Euro gets knocked down It’s been a difficult year for the euro so far. The single currency lost more than 2% against the US dollar in the first quarter, dragged down by a long spell of economic stagnation in the euro area, alongside mounting signs that the US economy is in much better shape.�
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD eases below 200-day SMA

EURUSD may touch uptrend line MACD and RSI indicate negative movements EURUSD is slipping beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) but is still above the 1.0800 area. As the market remains above this level and the medium-term ascending trend line, the outlook is still bullish. However, the technical oscillators are suggesting a bearish retracement.
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Market Comment – Yen sinks to intervention ‘danger zone’

Yen slips to new 34-year low, drawing stronger intervention threats Swiss franc loses ground too, dollar rebounds after solid US data Gold steady near record highs, chipmakers weigh on stock markets Yen hits the danger zone Currency traders are dusting off their FX intervention playbooks after the Japanese yen briefly fell to its lowest levels since 1990 against the dollar, drawing fierce warnings from officials in Tokyo that they could step in to defend the currency.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, Gold

USDJPY consolidates gains after touching important resistance EURUSD begins to recover, but threats remain Will gold’s bull run take a breather after record high?   Core PCE inflation --> USDJPY The Bank of Japan’s decision to exit negative interest rates did not provide a helping hand to the yen. Neither did the Fed’s unchanged projections of three rate cuts in 2024 weigh harshly on the US dollar, with USDJPY barely losing ground within the 151.00 territory after marki
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Market Comment – Yen stabilizes as Japan ramps up intervention warning

Threats of FX intervention help yen to stabilize near three-decade lows Dollar and stocks take a step back, Bitcoin jumps in anticipation of halving Shortage of liquidity could be an important market theme this week Yen on intervention watch Authorities in Japan issued another round of warnings to defend the sinking yen, which fell towards its lowest levels in three decades last week, even after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates out of negative territory.
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Market Comment – Dollar eases from highs as intervention warning props up yen

Intervention threat spurs mild rebound in yen after top currency official’s warning Yuan also rebounds, triggering broader retreat in US dollar Stock market rally cools amid quieter week before Easter break, core PCE eyed Yen firmer after fresh verbal intervention The Japanese yen edged higher on Monday, starting the holiday-shortened week on a steadier note, following a 3.5% slide on the back of the Bank of Japan’s dovish rate hike last week.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD dives towards 1.0800

EURUSD breaks SMAs to the downside Immediate support at rising trend line MACD and RSI suggest more negative movements EURUSD is showing some strong selling interest over the last couple of days, following the pullback from the 1.0940 resistance level. The price is also falling beneath the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) with the next support coming from the 1.0795 bar and the medium-term ascending trend line which may act as a turning point.
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Will PCE data revive concerns about sticky US inflation? – Preview

Fed continues to see three rate cuts for 2024 Investors add back to the June cut probability Focus shifts to next week’s core PCE index The data comes out on Friday at 12:30 GMT Fed appears more dovish than expected The Fed appeared more dovish than expected at its highly anticipated March gathering on Wednesday, with the updated dot plot still pointing to three quarter-point rate cuts for 2024. Despite the upgrades in growth and inflation forecasts, officials just removed
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Week Ahead – Markets quiet down after central bank frenzy

Dollar recovers after Fed selloff, turns to PCE inflation Yen falls despite rate increase, testing three-decade lows  Quarter-end flows could disturb the waters in a quiet week   Dollar stages recovery after Fed It was an action-packed week for FX traders, with five central bank meetings injecting volatility into the market. In a surprising move, the Federal Reserve continued to signal three rate cuts for this year, even though its new economic forecasts pointed to slightly hotte
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Market Comment – Stocks at fresh records even as dollar bounces back

Wall Street leads rally in equity markets, fuelled by rate cut optimism But US dollar stages surprise rebound amid US exceptionalism Pound slides on BoE’s dovish tilt, yen steadies, PBOC loosens grip on yuan Equities buoyed as easing expectations gather pace Shares on Wall Street are headed for strong weekly gains following the conclusion of the March central bank meetings that cemented rate cut expectations for 2024. After the European Central Bank paved the way for lower ra
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Does the Easter break affect markets?

Oil prices tends to rally before and after Easter Sunday Euro/dollar’s performance becomes clearer when drilling down the data Patterns emerge when focusing only on Easter Sunday occurring in March Most participants who trade based on seasonal patterns, enjoy combining the market’s performance with certain events like the Christmas and Easter breaks.
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Market Comment – Dollar tumbles as Fed still sees three rate cuts this year

Fed’s updated dot plot continues to suggest three rate cuts in 2024 Dollar tumbles across the board, June cut probability rises Pound traders lock gaze on BoE, SNB cuts interest rates S&P 500, Dow Jones and gold hit new record highs Dollar falls on dovish Fed The US dollar tumbled across the board on Wednesday after the Fed’s new projections revealed that officials are still expecting three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024. The greenback has been in a recovery mode l
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How the markets could react to the Fed meeting

Fed meeting coming up next; the market is in waiting mode The 10-year US Treasury yield usually reacts first to Fed decisions Gold and EURUSD could benefit from lower US yields The much talked about Fed meeting is taking place tonight at 18.00 GMT with the usual press conference held 30 minutes later. There is a growing debate about the outcome of the meeting, the overall rhetoric by Chairman Powell and the famous dot plot.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD on a slippery slope near 200-SMA

EURUSD’s slide continues from 1.0980 Price may rebound off the ascending trend line RSI and MACD lose momentum EURUSD is moving lower after the pullback from the 1.0980 resistance level, creating a new bearish wave in the medium-term ascending tendency. The pair is currently testing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0835 ahead of the 200-day exponential (MA) at 1.0815. Technically, the RSI is moving south, crossing the 50 level to the downside, while the MACD is lo
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Market Comment – BoJ hikes, scraps yield curve control, but yen slumps

BoJ ends negative rates and yield curve control in historic move But yen can’t catch a break as Ueda signals ongoing accommodative stance Aussie also under pressure as RBA tones down tightening bias Dollar resumes climb before Fed comes into the limelight BoJ ditches most stimulus-era policies As had been widely speculated, the Bank of Japan announced an end to eight years of negative interest rates and sharply scaled back its asset purchases after its policy meeting on Tu
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF

Major central bank meetings in the calendar this week Will the Fed meeting affect EURUSD? BoE decision will hold rates unchanged; GBPUSD retreats further SNB policy meeting may help USDCHF to rise Fed policy meeting --> EURUSD The focal point of this week appears to be the upcoming decision by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, since the anticipation of a more accommodative monetary policy in the world's largest economy has been driving the remarkable surge in the stock m
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Market Comment – Yen stays on the backfoot despite BoJ rate hike speculation

Wage data drives up bets of BoJ rate hike on Tuesday but yen not convinced Weaker yen boosts Nikkei but inflation worries weigh on Wall Street ahead of Fed Dollar steady in calm start to a very busy week but oil unsettled by geopolitics All eyes on BoJ decision as yen slips Intensifying speculation about a potential historic rate hike by the Bank of Japan is dominating the start of the week where the Federal Reserve, as well as central banks in the UK, Switzerland and Australia
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD trades sideways after sharp drop

EURUSD rotates lower after its advance gets rejected Trades flat in past few sessions within the Ichimoku cloud Momentum indicators weaken but remain positive   EURUSD had been in a steady recovery from its 2024 bottom of 1.0693, advancing to as high as 1.0980 on March 8. However, the pair’s rebound was rejected after a temporary jump above the Ichimoku cloud, with the short-term oscillators deteriorating significantly but holding above their neutral zones.
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Week Ahead – Five central banks: who will hike, who will not cut?

Fed meets on Wednesday with focus on new dot plot Will the Bank of Japan finally end negative rates on Tuesday? BoE and RBA to stick with patience, SNB might be in more of a rush to cut Flash PMIs plus inflation data in the UK, Japan and Canada will also be crucial Fed decision: hoping for the best The upcoming week will undoubtedly be one of the busiest, not to mention the most important, of the year for investors with five major central bank decisions on the way, along with
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