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EURUSD


XM-анализ

Week Ahead – US core PCE and Eurozone flash CPIs eyed after rate pause signals

PCE inflation to grab attention on Friday as Fed signals higher for longer But markets might be more worried about a government shutdown Eurozone flash CPIs will also be the in the spotlight on Friday Chinese PMIs to be watched for recovery signs Will core PCE add to second inflation wave worries? The latest spike in oil prices is causing some headaches for policymakers as energy costs are on the rise again just as they’ve started to see the result of their hard-fought ba
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Market Comment – Stocks roll over as US yields climb to new highs

Mayhem in US bond market spills over into stocks  Dollar struggles to advance despite soaring yields  Sterling sinks on BoE decision, yen retreats after BoJ  US yields leap higher The storm in US bond markets has evolved into a hurricane, inflicting deep wounds on riskier assets such as stocks. Yields on US government bonds have gone ballistic, with the yield on ten-year notes hitting a fresh cycle high of 4.50% earlier today.  When yields climb with such force, it has re
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Market Comment – Hawkish Fed boosts the dollar, BoE and BoJ next

Fed revises rate path higher, lifting dollar and yields Stock markets and gold move lower in the aftermath BoE decision today a coin toss, BoJ unlikely to move Fed commits to higher for longer The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yesterday, as widely expected, but revised its economic forecasts and interest rate projections higher.
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Will the Eurozone PMIs validate ECB cut bets? – Preview

Investors see rate cuts by the ECB, despite post-meeting hawkish rhetoric Eurozone prel. PMIs the next piece of information that could shake those bets Euro could slide if the PMIs disappoint when released on Friday, at 08:00 GMT After ECB meeting, the market sees rate cuts for next year Last week, the ECB decided to raise interest rates by 25bps, taking the deposit facility rate to a record high of 4%.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD edges higher; its next leg depends on the Fed meeting

EURUSD is edging higher today as market participants prepare for today’s event It tested the May 31 low but now appears to be heading towards the 1.0720 level SMAs’ convergence is potentially opening the door to an imminent strong move EURUSD is hovering below the busy 1.0720-1.0727 area as market participants are in waiting mode ahead of today’s significant Fed meeting.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD edges higher, all eyes on the Fed meeting

EURUSD continues to exhibit low volatility ahead of today’s Fed meeting It tested the May 31 low and bounced higher but remains below the 1.0720 level Bearish sentiment lingers but the SMAs’ convergence points to an imminent strong move EURUSD is hovering below the 1.0720-1.0727 area as market participants are preparing for today’s significant Fed meeting.
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Market Comment – Euro gains on ECB remarks; dollar awaits Fed decision

Euro rebounds as ECB officials do not rule out another hike Dollar trades cautiously as Fed policy decision looms Wall Street nearly unchanged, gold extends gains ECB policymakers push back on market bets The euro extended its recovery against its US counterpart on Monday, bolstered by more relatively hawkish ECB rhetoric. Just a day after the ECB’s decision was interpreted as hinting at the end of this tightening crusade, several policymakers, including President Lagarde, a
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

EURUSD hovers near key 1.0665 ahead of Fed decision A dovish BoE could trigger reversal confirmation in GBPUSD BoJ to stand pat; may help USDJPY extend its uptrend Fed rate decision -> EUR/USD The Fed is expected to stand pat on Wednesday, with the markets seeing only a 40% probability of another hike before this tightening campaign ends and around 80bps worth of rate cuts for next year.
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Market Comment – Oil prices keep rising despite stock market turmoil

Oil prices continue to rise as tight supply kicks in Rising bond yields put pressure on equity markets Dollar rally takes a breather, helping to boost gold Soaring oil prices spell trouble for euro and yen A pivotal week for global markets kicks off with another sharp spike in oil prices. The non-stop rally has seen WTI crude prices rise more than 30% this quarter, driven by a classic supply shortage after Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to curtail their production.
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Week Ahead – Fed, BoE, and BoJ meetings to fuel FX volatility

Central bank decisions in United States, United Kingdom, Japan, and Switzerland Fed almost certain to hit pause, markets will focus on updated rate projections  More scope for surprises from Bank of England and Swiss National Bank instead   Fed - mind the dots The central bank bonanza will kick off with the Fed on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in almost no chance of a rate increase, following several remarks from FOCM officials calling for patience and more time to examine
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Market Comment – Euro skids after ECB hike, China data lifts sentiment

Euro tumbles as ECB raises rates but hints at pause US dollar hits 6-month high after US retail sales beat Stocks rally on upbeat Chinese data but watch out for triple witching ECB makes surprise hike despite gloomy outlook The European Central Bank raised its key lending rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, taking some investors by surprise amid a split within the Governing Council heading into the meeting.
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Market Comment – Euro in the spotlight ahead of ECB decision

ECB decision coming up, but is it a lose-lose for the euro?  Dollar chops around after US inflation, awaits retail sales Gold extends losing streak despite falling bond yields Will the ECB sink the euro?  The highlight today will be the European Central Bank decision, where markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a rate increase.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD in waiting mode; bulls desperate for a move higher

EURUSD continues to hover around the 1.0720-1.0727 area Short-term bearish trend remains firmly in place But the stochastic oscillator could open the door to a bullish move EURUSD continues to hover around the 1.0720-1.0727 area as market participants are preparing for the next key events. All eyes are on the stochastic oscillator at this juncture. It is hovering in its oversold territory, but it has surpassed its moving average and looks ready to climb above the 20 threshold and
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD almost unchanged today, but bulls do not lose hope

EURUSD is trying to register its fourth consecutive green candle Short-term bearish trend remains dominant But the stochastic could open the door to a bullish reaction EURUSD is hovering at its lowest point since the late-May trough as the market is preparing for the next key events. The bearish pressure persists but it appears to be losing its strength. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging lower and towards its 25-threshold, thus pointing to
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Market Comment – Cautious trading ahead of US inflation report

US inflation data to set the tone for USD and riskier plays Euro gets a boost from ECB reports, oil prices power higher  Tech sector leads stock markets down, gold nurses losses US CPI in the limelight Traders are locked and loaded for another edition of US inflation data today. Markets have concluded that the Fed won’t raise rates next week and this report is unlikely to change this notion.
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Market Comment – Stocks perk up ahead of US CPI and ECB tests, dollar resumes climb

Markets steady as US data and ECB decision awaited Wall Street starts week on optimistic note Yen eases slightly as dollar back on the front foot, pound unfazed by jobs data Calm prevails ahead of big tests Markets remained in a cautiously risk-on mode on Tuesday as hopes that China’s economic meltdown is stabilizing and that central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycle shored up sentiment ahead of some key events lined up this week.
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A dovish hike or a hawkish pause coming from the ECB? – Preview

The ECB rate-setting meeting dominates this week’s busy schedule Market split between a dovish 25bps rate hike and a hawkish pause Decision will be announced on Thursday 12.15 GMT, press conference at 12:45 GMT All eyes are on Thursday's ECB rate meeting The ECB holds its sixth rate-setting meeting for 2023 with the market mostly split on its outcome.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

ECB to hold rates steady; EUR/USD may not enjoy lasting gains UK jobs & GDP data may be not be strong enough to push GBP/USD  above key barrier US CPI inflation to strengthen but will USD/JPY resume uptrend? ECB rate decision --> EUR/USD ECB policymakers will analyze a dull dataset before announcing their next policy decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.

Market Comment – Yen jumps on hawkish Ueda remarks, dollar slips ahead of US CPI

BoJ’s Ueda hints at end to negative rates by year-end if wages rise Dollar starts week on the backfoot as crucial CPI data awaited China hopes lift aussie, equities; easing Apple selloff helps stocks too Ueda sparks BoJ policy speculation The Japanese yen shot higher on Monday, climbing against all of its major peers after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda fanned speculation of an early exit from ultra-easy policy in an interview with the Yomiuri newspaper over the weekend.
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US inflation data could add fuel to the dollar’s resurgence – Preview

The US dollar has gone on a tear in recent weeks amid signs that the US economy remains resilient, in contrast to Europe and China that are rapidly losing steam. Whether this rally continues or suffers a setback will depend on the latest CPI report on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Overall though, the outlook for the dollar seems quite bright.    American strength A range of incoming indicators continue to reaffirm the power of the US economy.
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