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Are we chasing inflation ghosts? – Special Report

Posted on September 11, 2020 at 1:00 pm GMT

The Fed said last month that it will allow inflation to run above its 2% objective for some time without hiking rates until average inflation hits that level. While the wording of this new strategy is seen as a move to convince markets that monetary policy will remain accommodative for longer, it has at the same time raised questions about if, how, and when prices will run hot. Perhaps, influencing expectations was the Fed’s goal in the first place. Why [..]

Could Nonfarm payrolls be a wake-up call for dollar bulls? – Forex News Preview

Posted on June 4, 2020 at 10:29 am GMT

The cocktail of violent protests across US major cities and a rising risk appetite upset the dollar and let other major currencies collect sizeable gains for more than a week now. On Friday at 12:30 GMT the famous nonfarm payrolls report may not be an ideal one, but it could add some floor under the buttered greenback if the data indicate that the worst of job losses is likely behind. The worst could be befind us The destructive protests, which have [..]

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US jobless claims, Markit PMIs and durable goods may not spook dollar – Forex News Preview

Posted on April 22, 2020 at 3:41 pm GMT

The US agenda is featuring initial jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and preliminary Markit PMI figures (13:45 GMT) on Thursday followed by durable goods (12:30 GMT) on Friday. Expectations, though, are for a neutral reaction in the US dollar.  Despite the shocking expansion of Covid-19 in the US, the greenback continued to overperform against a basket of major currencies year-to-date, remaining above the 100 level although it could not steal demand from the Japanese yen due to the currency’s stronger safe-haven feature. The fact that [..]

Why the Fed’s currency swaps may not calm the dollar funding stress – Special Report

Posted on March 24, 2020 at 3:32 pm GMT

The coronavirus crisis prompted investors to rush for US dollars, with the greenback skyrocketing against a basket of major currencies by nearly 9% over the past ten days in the aftermath. To ease the panic and avoid currency shortages in the banking sector, the Federal Reserve decided to enhance its latest stimulus package by increasing dollar supply in overseas markets through its swap line operations.  Yet, whether such an action will bring calm to nervous investors remains a question. How do FX swap lines function? FX swap [..]

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Technical Analysis – Dollar index reactivates 2-year old uptrend in overbought zone

Posted on February 20, 2020 at 9:27 am GMT

The US dollar index futures cleared the tough ceiling around 99.30 and spiked to a 33-month high of 99.74 on Thursday, re-activating the two-year old upward pattern off 88.13. If the bulls manage to close decisively above the former resistance level of 99.60 from 2015, the next key obstacle is expected to pop up around 100.60. Since the RSI and the MACD have yet to show signs of weakness, the odds for such a case are currently looking high. If [..]

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Technical Analysis – Dollar index futures may lengthen bearish trend

Posted on January 22, 2020 at 11:12 am GMT

US dollar index futures are exposed to downside risks as regards the market trend. The first clue is the lower high and the lower lows registered below the 2 ½-year peak of 99.30 and second is the death cross created between the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) after more than a year – if sustained. In terms of momentum, the short-term bias is currently viewed as neutral-to-positive as the RSI is moving sideways above its 50 neutral mark and the MACD [..]

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Technical Analysis – Dollar Index futures search for a rebound near pivot point

Posted on October 18, 2019 at 11:13 am GMT

The US dollar index futures crashed below the short-term ascending line drawn from 95.34 and are now set to beat a longer support line stretched from March 2018. The fast-Stochastics and the RSI, however, signal that the bearish action is running out of fuel and hence a rebound off the line is likely as the indicators are hovering near oversold levels. Note that the market action has been also taking place around the lower bollinger band, increasing the odds for an upside [..]

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Technical Analysis – Dollar index futures to hold positive above ascending trendlines

Posted on October 4, 2019 at 1:21 pm GMT

The US dollar index futures are set to close negative in the week after failing to retest the 28-month high of 99.30, with the RSI and the MACD foreseeing now a positive but softer short-term trading. On the downside, the ascending trend-line drawn from the 95.34 trough, currently seen around 98.20, could be an ideal place to look for immediate support. If the price clears that barrier, the sell-off could pick up steam towards 97.52, which is the 38.2% retracement [..]

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Technical Analysis – US dollar index futures spike above 99.00, enter overbought waters

Posted on September 2, 2019 at 4:33 pm GMT

The clear upside direction in the RSI and the positive slope in the Stochastics are framing a bullish picture for the short-term, though with the indicators entering overbought waters, the positive momentum could soften soon. Friday’s closing price above the upper Bollinger band is another indication that room for improvement could be limited. In case of a downside reversal, the 98.00 barrier could act as immediate support before last week’s trough of 97.50 grabs attention. Another step lower could bring the lower Bollinger band, currently [..]

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Technical Analysis – Dollar Index futures scope for further losses but short-term downside softer

Posted on June 24, 2019 at 1:39 pm GMT

The position in the US dollar index futures is on the back foot for the fourth consecutive day and near a three-month low of 95.47 following the rejection from the 20- and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMA). The price has so far fallen below the 200-day SMA, the previous low of 96 and the 50% Fibonacci of the 93.56-98.23 upleg, putting the January upward pattern into question. In the short-term, downside pressure may persist but potentially at a softer pace given that Stochastics [..]

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