Pound pressured by downwardly revised UK manufacturing PMI but Eurozone revised up

Posted on August 1, 2016 at 11:16 am GMT

The post-Brexit gloom appears to have had a bigger impact on the UK’s manufacturing sector than initially thought, according to data out today. The final reading of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI was revised down from 49.1 in the one-off flash estimate to 48.2 in July – the lowest since February 2013. Expectations were for the final reading to remain unrevised and compares with a figure of 52.1 in June. This was the steepest deterioration in manufacturing activity since October 2012. [..]


Week Ahead – Pressure on BoE to cut rates; PMI data and US NFP also in focus

Posted on July 29, 2016 at 2:45 pm GMT

The Bank of England meets next week in a highly anticipated meeting where the Bank is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2009. The Reserve Bank of Australia also meets and will likely ease policy too. The latest PMI survey data for the Eurozone, UK, US and China will also be watched as investors look for signs of any negative impact on growth from Brexit, while the July non-farm payrolls report out of the US will for [..]


Eurozone economic sentiment rises unexpectedly in July

Posted on July 28, 2016 at 11:08 am GMT

Economic sentiment across the Eurozone improved in July, defying expectations that it would suffer a drop as a result of the uncertainty created by Britain’s decision to leave the EU. According to the European Commission’s survey, the economic sentiment indicator for the euro area rose from 104.4 in June to 104.6 in July, beating estimates that it would decline to 103.7. Among the region’s largest economies, Italy saw the biggest improvement during the month, while France and Spain saw a [..]


European Session – Pound tumbles after PMI points to contraction in economic activity

Posted on July 22, 2016 at 2:44 pm GMT

The main news item in today’s European session was the release of the Markit PMI business surveys for a number of developed countries.  The Eurozone PMI beat expectations on the composite level, as it fell to only 52.9 compared to 52.5 expected by economists.  The previous month’s figure was 53.1.  Therefore it appeared that Brexit had only a modest negative effect on Eurozone businesses. In Germany, services’ PMI was much stronger-than-expected, which showed solid domestic demand.  Manufacturing did less well [..]


Week Ahead – Hopes high for BoJ stimulus; FOMC and Q2 GDP also eyed

Posted on July 22, 2016 at 1:48 pm GMT

Expectations have been mounting that the Bank of Japan will launch fresh stimulus measures next week but the Fed will likely stay put. It will also be busy on the data front for Japan and the US, while second quarter GDP data for the Eurozone, the UK and the US should also attract attention. Will the BoJ pull the trigger? Starting the week on Monday, trade figures for Japan are expected to show a further deterioration in exports in June. [..]


European Session – Euro see-saws after Draghi says Brexit shock ‘contained’; Yen up on Kuroda remarks

Posted on July 21, 2016 at 3:06 pm GMT

The euro saw some volatility in Thursday’s European session after the European Central Bank maintained its existing outlook on the Eurozone economy following its first policy meeting after June’s EU referendum outcome in the UK. Many analysts had expected the ECB to warn of a possible increase to the downside risks to the euro area as a result of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. However, speaking at today’s press conference after the meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi said financial [..]


European Session – Commodities sag as dollar extends gains; pound boosted by BoE survey

Posted on July 20, 2016 at 2:49 pm GMT

Commodity prices fell sharply in today’s European session as the US dollar continued its advance against most major currencies. Sentiment for the US currency appears to have turned bullish in recent days after a run of solid US data put the prospect of a Fed rate hike at some point in 2016 back on the table. The dollar rose to its highest since June 24 against the yen, reaching an intra-day high of 106.71 yen in late European session. This [..]


German ZEW economic sentiment plummets after Brexit

Posted on July 19, 2016 at 1:05 pm GMT

Business sentiment in Germany took a big hit in July from the UK vote to leave the EU according to the latest ZEW survey. The ZEW economic sentiment index plummeted from 19.2 in June to -6.8 in July. This was the lowest level since November 2012 in the midst of the Eurozone debt crisis and was well below expectations of 9.0. The UK’s EU referendum outcome on June 24 took markets by surprise, creating uncertainty about the outlook for the [..]


Week Ahead – First post-Brexit BoE meeting and slowing China GDP could signal fresh stimulus

Posted on July 8, 2016 at 2:52 pm GMT

The Bank of England will come in focus next week as it holds its first policy meeting following the shock referendum outcome when Britons voted to leave the EU. The Chinese economy will also come under the limelight once again as a flurry of data is released, including GDP growth figures for the second quarter. US inflation and retail sales data will also be watched. China GDP to slow further as exports continue to struggle China will start the week [..]


European Session – Pound slides to fresh 31-year low after Carney says fall is “beneficial”

Posted on July 5, 2016 at 3:16 pm GMT

After stabilizing over the past week, the pound saw renewed volatility today as it tumbled to fresh 31-year lows against the US dollar. Sterling had come under pressure earlier in the day when British bank, Standard Chartered, triggered fears of investors fleeing UK assets after it said that it had suspended trading in its UK real estate fund due to large withdrawals. Fresh measures by the Bank of England to ease liquidity concerns in the British economy failed to support [..]

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