Week Ahead – Dollar eyes US stimulus talks, retail sales; UK GDP and RBNZ in focus too

Posted on August 7, 2020 at 1:10 pm GMT

Congressional talks in the United States on a new virus relief package will dominate the market headlines yet again in the coming week as the durability of the latest risk-on episode rests on a deal being reached. But investors will also be keeping a close watch on US retail sales figures to gauge how well consumption is holding up amid renewed virus restrictions. Progress on the recovery will be preoccupying the pound too as UK GDP numbers for Q2 and [..]

Daily Market Comment – Trump fans the geopolitical flames ahead of NFP

Posted on August 7, 2020 at 8:10 am GMT

Nonfarm payrolls to set the tone for markets, along with stimulus negotiations Trump fires another salvo at Beijing, bans transactions with Tencent, moves to delist Chinese firms Geopolitical worries keep dollar alive, Wall Street set to snap 5-day winning streak Nonfarm payrolls: A most uncertain one The main event today will be the US employment report for July. The consensus is for the US economy to have added another 1.6 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down to 10.5%, from [..]


Technical Analysis – EURUSD trend signals turn greener

Posted on August 6, 2020 at 2:27 pm GMT

EURUSD is stubbornly pushing for a close above the 1.1900 level this week, having surpassed it already, though marginally. In the weekly timeframe, hopes for more improvement have strengthened after the price breached a 12-year old resistance trendline, while the first bullish cross between the 20- and 50-weekly simple moving averages (SMA) in three years is further boosting the sentiment. Should the pair claim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2554-1.0636 downtrend at 1.1820, closing above the 1.1900 level too, the door would open for the 1.2130 restrictive [..]

Daily Market Comment – Bank of England lifts sterling; dollar battered but still standing

Posted on August 6, 2020 at 8:25 am GMT

Sterling jumps after BoE seems reluctant towards negative rates, upgrades forecasts Stocks climb, dollar resumes downfall as markets keep betting Congress will deliver Dollar testing a crucial support area again – tomorrow’s NFP may be pivotal Otherwise, the spotlight remains on whether Congress will reach a deal soon BoE strikes a more cheerful tone, pound listens The Bank of England (BoE) unanimously voted to keep its policy unchanged today and struck a fairly optimistic tone. Even though it acknowledged the [..]

Nonfarm payrolls: Great expectations? – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 5, 2020 at 12:42 pm GMT

The US employment report will hit the markets at 12:30 GMT Friday, and forecasts suggest the American economy added another 1.6 million jobs in July. Why is the consensus so optimistic even though the US recovery is losing steam? The answer lies with the period which the data were collected in. Overall, the risks seem tilted towards a disappointing, but positive NFP print. As for the dollar, whether the recent downfall continues will depend mostly on what Congress does. Too [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar comeback falters as yields sink, gold sparkles

Posted on August 5, 2020 at 8:39 am GMT

Greenback attempts comeback, but fails as bond yields plummet Gold salutes crumbling dollar and yields, hits new record above $2000 Stocks crawl higher as stimulus negotiations ‘move in the right direction’ Overall, bond market is saying something’s wrong, but stocks don’t mind Falling bond yields stop dollar rebound in its tracks Those hoping for a summer lull in financial markets come August have likely been left disappointed, as there has been absolutely no shortage of volatility so far this week. [..]

Daily Market Comment – Nasdaq conquers new heights as US infections slow down

Posted on August 4, 2020 at 8:15 am GMT

Stocks gain altitude on slowing contagion and encouraging data Most currencies trade in wide ranges, but go nowhere Overall, market focus remains on Congress, where little progress is apparently being made Nasdaq hits new records as tech keeps the dream alive Positive sentiment dominated financial markets at the onset of the new week, with global stock indices and risk-sensitive commodities like oil edging higher, powered by a persistent slowdown in US infections and some encouraging manufacturing numbers. America reported fewer [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar shrugs off ratings downgrade, RBA in focus

Posted on August 3, 2020 at 8:17 am GMT

Dollar rebounds on profit-taking and short-covering, despite Fitch downgrade – is this a dead cat bounce? Stocks remain near highs as tech giants fly, next big move depends on Congress Australia tightens lockdown in Victoria, telegraphing dovish shift by RBA overnight Dollar shows signs of life, but is it just flows? The world’s reserve currency staged a comeback on Friday and continues to lick its wounds at the start of the new week, shrugging off a credit ratings downgrade by [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD pivots from 26½-month high; bullish signals intact

Posted on August 3, 2020 at 7:43 am GMT

EURUSD retreated abruptly from the recent multi-year high of 1.1908 with sellers attempting to cement further negative moves. This can be viewed in the pause of the blue Kijun-sen line and the latest weakening of the short-term oscillators. Despite the stochastic oscillator having turned bearish and the current stalling in the MACD and the RSI, positive signals are still present, as the MACD, in the positive region, remains above its red trigger line and the RSI holds above 70. Moreover, [..]

Week ahead – Can nonfarm payrolls halt the dollar’s descent?

Posted on July 31, 2020 at 12:41 pm GMT

It’s a huge week ahead, with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England both announcing their rate decisions ahead of the all-important US employment data. For markets, the burning question is whether a decent payrolls report will be enough to halt the dollar’s relentless slide. The other variable that will impact most charts through the risk sentiment channel is whether Congress will reach a compromise on the new rescue package, and if so, how much will they [..]

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