Week Ahead – Pound to take centre stage as Brexit vote looms; ECB meets amid worsening Eurozone outlook

Posted on December 7, 2018 at 1:59 pm GMT

The pound looks set for even choppier times as British MPs will next week get to vote on Theresa May’s much criticized Brexit deal, while there will also be a flurry of UK data for traders to keep up with. The euro will also be in focus as the European Central Bank is due to hold a scheduled policy meeting. The Swiss National Bank will be another central bank deciding on rates next week. In the US, inflation and retail [..]


European Open Preview – Dollar moves off lows ahead of US jobs report but weighed by talk of Fed pause

Posted on December 7, 2018 at 9:13 am GMT

US dollar edges up from lows as risk sentiment improves, but expectations that the Fed could soon pause its rate hike cycle limit gains US Treasury yields fall sharply on Wall Street Journal report that Fed is considering “wait-and-see” approach Pound steady despite May pondering whether to delay Brexit vote Oil under pressure again as OPEC struggles to reach output agreement, awaits for Russia to join talks before making decision Dollar firmer ahead of nonfarm payrolls report The US dollar [..]


European Open Preview – Risk sentiment sours; OPEC summit front and center

Posted on December 6, 2018 at 8:30 am GMT

Risk appetite crumbles as US arrests Huawei CFO, generating worries of re-escalation in the trade conflict Today, all eyes are on OPEC’s meeting (1200 GMT); expectations for a production cut are elevated Loonie nosedives to a 1½-year low as BoC shifts to a more cautious stance Risk appetite falters on fears of “trade war” re-escalation After a relatively calm Wednesday, risk appetite deteriorated once more during the Asian session on Thursday, following news that the CFO of the Chinese tech [..]


Strategy update: The trade ‘truce’, the Fed’s possible pause and May’s Brexit woes

Posted on December 5, 2018 at 3:05 pm GMT

Markets unconvinced by Trump-Xi trade rapprochement The Fed could slow rate hikes Market braces for Brexit turbulence as May struggles to convince Parliament Markets unconvinced by Trump-Xi trade rapprochement A major theme for global markets and the global economy is the uncertainty caused by the frictions between the United States and China. It was therefore an initially positive piece of news that the two countries would restart a new round of negotiations that would last for 90 days, that China would pledge to import [..]


European Open Preview – Stocks sink amid trade woes; BoC decision eyed

Posted on December 5, 2018 at 8:46 am GMT

Trump’s trade posturing sinks stock markets Bank of Canada to stand pat (1500 GMT), but may appear a touch more cautious Dollar rebounds after Fed’s Williams reiterates “gradual hikes” Sterling remains turbulent as Parliamentary debate kicks off Equities sink on Trump’s trade posturing Wall Street plunged, with the S&P 500 falling by a whopping 3.24% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite nosediving by 3.80%. Meanwhile, defensive assets like the Japanese yen outperformed. The mood was already sour before the US markets [..]


European Open Preview – Markets retrace as trade optimism wanes

Posted on December 4, 2018 at 8:45 am GMT

Trade optimism fades as markets digest the agreement Dollar extends recent pullback Oil continues to recover amid speculation for an OPEC cut RBA slightly more upbeat, but no policy change in sight Stocks edge higher on trade relief, but optimism wanes The boost to global risk appetite following the US-China trade “ceasefire” seems to have been short-lived. Even though US stock markets closed higher, they did surrender a decent part of their gains late in the session, and futures tracking [..]


European Open Preview – Risk-on sentiment resumes as trade storm eases

Posted on December 3, 2018 at 9:28 am GMT

Stocks up, dollar down as trade fears ease French President Macron under political pressure but euro heads up  Brexit risks loom in the background Oil surges as Russian President backs production cuts; Qatar to withdraw OPEC membership Stocks head higher on trade relief   The US President, Donald Trump, and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping had progressive trade talks during their dinner on the sidelines of the G20 summit on Saturday, with the world’s largest economies deciding to ceasefire the [..]


Technical Analysis – EURUSD hovers below SMAs as negative outlook remains

Posted on December 3, 2018 at 7:31 am GMT

EURUSD continues the negative tendency over the last eight months and has been stuck below the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Looking at momentum indicators, the RSI is pointing slightly up but is below its neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD also remains in negative territory while moving above its red signal line. Should the pair experience more negative pressure, the market could meet support at the 17-month low of 1.1215, before the price heads sharply lower towards the 1.1115 mark, identified by the lows on June 2017. In case [..]


Week Ahead – Spotlight on US jobs report after ‘Powell Put’; RBA and BoC meet

Posted on November 30, 2018 at 1:56 pm GMT

The coming week will be significant both in terms of data releases as well as for central bank meetings. November nonfarm payrolls out of the US will likely be the most anticipated report but it’s going to be a big week for the Australian dollar too as Q3 GDP numbers are due along with an RBA meeting. The Bank of Canada will be the other central bank holding a scheduled meeting, though the Canadian dollar will probably be paying more [..]


European Open Preview – All eyes on the Trump-Xi meeting

Posted on November 30, 2018 at 8:40 am GMT

The Trump-Xi meeting is due tomorrow; whether a “ceasefire” is agreed may determine the near-term direction of the dollar and equities Market reaction to FOMC minutes was muted. Attention turns to a speech by NY Fed President Williams today at 1400 GMT Oil rebounds after posting fresh one-year lows, eyes next week’s OPEC meeting Trump and Xi to meet, outcome may shape risk appetite Movements in the FX market were largely subdued, with investors increasingly turning their attention to the [..]

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