Fed meeting: No fireworks, focus on the ‘dots’ – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 10, 2019 at 2:29 pm GMT

The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. Having slashed rates at its last three meetings, no action is expected this time, so the dollar will take its cue from the signals about future cuts and specifically, from the updated ‘dot plot’. With markets still pricing in a full rate cut by November 2020, a dot plot that shows an unchanged Federal funds rate next year could come as a ‘hawkish’ surprise and by extension, lift [..]

Daily Market Comment – Currencies take a breather ahead of risk events, stocks retreat

Posted on December 10, 2019 at 9:22 am GMT

FX market stays quiet as news flow dries up and traders await Fed decision tomorrow Pound perks up as Tories maintain poll lead; Yougov model today at 22:00 GMT may be critical Currencies snooze, equities retreat as investors position for risk events   It was a very quiet session for financial markets, with most major currency pairs trading in tight ranges and ending little changed overall, without any major news to drive the price action. Stocks inched lower, with the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD rally above 1.1100 likely to resume bullish appetite

Posted on December 10, 2019 at 8:30 am GMT

EURUSD slipped back into the 1.1000 region after the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.1108 of the upleg from 1.0878 to 1.1178 ceased last week’s rally that surpassed the neckline of the double top bearish formation in the four-hour chart. The 50-period simple moving average (SMA) is keeping sellers under control this week, though the momentum indicators have yet to enter the bullish territory to signal improvement in the market. With the RSI hovering around its 50 neutral mark and the MACD [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar jumps on solid NFP; markets brace for huge week

Posted on December 9, 2019 at 9:21 am GMT

Greenback and stocks cheer after blockbuster jobs report, but yen tells a different story Loonie nosedives on weak employment data, despite higher oil prices Calendar is low key today, but week is packed: Fed, ECB, UK election, tariff decision Dollar shoots higher as nonfarm payrolls smash expectations It was all about the US employment data on Friday, which easily beat forecasts. Nonfarm payrolls clocked in at 266k, much higher than the expected 180k, with last month’s print also revised up. [..]

Week ahead – Fed and ECB meetings to serve as appetizers for UK election

Posted on December 6, 2019 at 1:58 pm GMT

The main event will be the UK general election on Thursday, which could decide what form Brexit takes and shape the pound’s fortunes for months. Central bank meetings will serve as a prelude. The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged, and may reinforce the message that it will remain on hold for a while. The ECB will hold its first gathering under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, but is unlikely to provide any fireworks. Instead, trade news could dominate, [..]

Daily Market Comment – US employment data to dictate mood; OPEC can’t lift oil

Posted on December 6, 2019 at 9:08 am GMT

Spotlight falls on the US jobs report today; risks around dollar asymmetric Is European fiscal stimulus not a pipe dream after all? OPEC pledges deeper production cuts, but oil doesn’t ‘buy it’ In Britain, Boris Johnson debates Jeremy Corbyn for the final time Nonfarm payrolls: Mind the asymmetry The main event today will be the US employment report for November, due at 13:30 GMT. Forecasts point to another solid data set, with nonfarm payrolls (NFP) expected to clock in at [..]

Daily Market Comment – Markets climb on hopes Trump is bluffing; pound soars

Posted on December 5, 2019 at 9:33 am GMT

Risk appetite returns on reports suggesting Trump was just posturing on trade Pound surges as election polls show Tories consolidating their lead Loonie climbs on less-dovish BoC signals, looks to OPEC meeting Optimistic trade headlines breathe life back into riskier assets US stock markets snapped a three-day losing spell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.63% on the back of a report claiming that American and Chinese negotiators are “moving closer” to agreeing the amount of tariffs that would [..]

Nonfarm payrolls: An asymmetric risk for the dollar? – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 4, 2019 at 1:16 pm GMT

The latest US employment data will hit the markets at 13:30 GMT on Friday, with forecasts pointing to yet another solid report. Markets aren’t pricing in much chance of a Fed rate cut in the coming months, so any disappointment in these data could trigger a significant negative reaction in the dollar, whereas a positive surprise may not lift the currency too much. Having said that, the overall outlook surrounding the greenback still seems positive. Still the only game in [..]

Daily Market Comment – Markets rattled as Trump says “no deadline” for trade deal; gold jumps

Posted on December 4, 2019 at 9:29 am GMT

Risk mood darkens after Trump hints he’s in no hurry to sign trade deal with China US bill on China’s treatment of Muslim minorities further raises tensions between the two countries Safe havens soar as stocks and Treasury yields slide US ISM non-manufacturing PMI awaited; BoC decision eyed too Trump sends markets spinning as trade deal hopes fade Risk sentiment was dealt another blow on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump dampened hopes of an early resolution to the long-running [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar sinks on Trump tariffs and poor ISM PMI

Posted on December 3, 2019 at 8:57 am GMT

Trump expands trade war by imposing tariffs on South American metal imports Renewed trade frictions and unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing PMI dampen sentiment Stocks turn negative; dollar plunge lifts euro Aussie jumps as RBA remains in wait-and-see mode; kiwi rallies too Trump ratchets up trade war by announcing tariffs on metal imports The long-running trade war took another twist yesterday after President Trump shocked markets by announcing tariffs on aluminium and steel imports from Brazil and Argentina. Citing the “massive [..]

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