Can the EU recovery fund change the euro’s fortunes? – Special Report

Posted on May 21, 2020 at 3:15 pm GMT

The euro finally found its footing this week, bolstered by a Franco-German plan for a European recovery fund worth half a trillion euros to assist the economies most devastated by the crisis. Although the proposal is a step in the right direction for establishing some debt-sharing mechanism that ultimately sets the stage for Eurobonds, its size is quite small and it will face fierce opposition from Northern European countries. Hence, while it diminishes some risks and could keep the euro [..]

UK PMIs unlikely to rescue pound from mounting risks – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 19, 2020 at 1:39 pm GMT

In Britain, the preliminary PMIs for May will hit the markets at 08:30 GMT Thursday, ahead of retail sales for April at 06:00 GMT on Friday. The PMIs are expected to rise, but to remain deep within contractionary waters, while retail sales are primed for a record collapse. As for the pound, it is being battered from all sides. The UK economy will reopen very slowly, investors are worried that today’s exploding deficit will result in austerity tomorrow, the BoE [..]


Technical Analysis – AUDJPY turns neutral as recovery continues

Posted on April 29, 2020 at 10:18 am GMT

AUDJPY continues to heal its wounds, posting higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart ever since it crashed to the 11-year low of 59.85 in mid-March. Attesting to the improving sentiment, the pair has crossed back above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Put together, these suggest the outlook has improved to neutral, from negative previously. Short-term oscillators are mixed, not painting a clear picture about the immediate term. The RSI is in positive territory but has flattened [..]

Fed meeting: Taking a breather – Forex News Preview

Posted on April 28, 2020 at 10:40 am GMT

The Fed concludes its meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday and having thrown everything including the kitchen sink to protect the US economy in the battle against the virus, no action is expected this time. As such, the market reaction may depend mainly on Chairman Powell’s remarks half an hour later. From a risk-management perspective, Powell has more incentive to soothe investors’ nerves and hint that more stimulus is possible, which could briefly hurt the dollar. Preventing a financial crisis [..]

European PMIs may be scary, but euro has bigger fish to fry – Forex News Preview

Posted on April 21, 2020 at 1:24 pm GMT

The Eurozone’s preliminary PMIs for April will be released on Thursday at 08:00 GMT, and the numbers could be scary. However, investors don’t pay much attention to economic data nowadays, so the euro might be driven by risk sentiment and politics instead. The meeting of EU leaders – also on Thursday – is an asymmetric upside risk, but the currency’s broader outlook still seems negative. Too little, too late The European Union’s weak institutional framework has come back to bite [..]


Technical Analysis – USDCAD pops higher, but still in bear mode

Posted on April 20, 2020 at 12:02 pm GMT

USDCAD recovered somewhat in recent sessions, but the pair is still printing lower highs on the four-hour chart, which keeps the near-term outlook cautiously negative. For the short-term picture to improve to neutral, the bulls would need to push the market above 1.4350. Short term oscillators suggest that the latest recovery could continue for now. The RSI has crossed above 50 and is pointing up, while the MACD – already positive – is now testing its trigger line, an upside [..]


Technical Analysis – AUDJPY attempts to turn neutral as bulls keep control

Posted on April 9, 2020 at 12:07 pm GMT

AUDJPY posted solid gains in recent sessions, continuing to recover after crashing in late February. The pair is now testing the 67.70 zone and crucially, a close above this region could turn the outlook back to neutral, from cautiously negative now. Something similar is being signaled by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which has started to flatten out. Short term oscillators suggest that the recovery might continue for now. The RSI has popped above its 50 line and is [..]


Technical Analysis – AUDJPY bounces off 11-year low, but recovery fizzles

Posted on March 27, 2020 at 1:06 pm GMT

AUDJPY fell aggressively in recent weeks to touch an 11-year low of 59.85, where the pair found fresh buy orders and subsequently rebounded. That said, the price structure on the daily chart still points to a broader downtrend, something reinforced by the ‘death cross’ of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) below the 200-day one. Moreover, the inability of the bulls to pierce above 67.70 suggests that upside momentum is fading. Short term oscillators paint a mixed picture. Whereas the [..]


Technical Analysis – AUDUSD rebounds on 17½-year low; negative momentum fades

Posted on March 26, 2020 at 7:26 am GMT

AUDUSD is unable to decisively overrun above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the bearish wave from 0.7030 to the 17½-year low of 0.5506 to post some significant gains, as positive momentum evaporates. The pair today has declined to the nearby red Tenkan-sen line and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.5865, with backing from the technical indicators and the easing simple moving average lines (SMAs). Most of the short-term oscillators suggest an increase in negative momentum for now. The slightly falling [..]


Technical Analysis – EURUSD recovery halted by downtrend line

Posted on March 25, 2020 at 11:45 am GMT

EURUSD recovered in recent sessions following an aggressive sell-off, but the bulls seem to be having trouble overcoming a downtrend line drawn from the March peak. The near-term outlook therefore remains negative for the time being, though a break above the downtrend line and more importantly above the 1.0890 zone, could turn it back to neutral. Short term momentum oscillators rest near their neutral levels, providing no clear directional signals. The RSI is currently testing its 50 zone while the [..]

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