Week Ahead – Dollar eyes US stimulus talks, retail sales; UK GDP and RBNZ in focus too

Posted on August 7, 2020 at 1:10 pm GMT

Congressional talks in the United States on a new virus relief package will dominate the market headlines yet again in the coming week as the durability of the latest risk-on episode rests on a deal being reached. But investors will also be keeping a close watch on US retail sales figures to gauge how well consumption is holding up amid renewed virus restrictions. Progress on the recovery will be preoccupying the pound too as UK GDP numbers for Q2 and [..]


Technical Analysis – GBPUSD between a bearish formation and a bullish breakout

Posted on August 7, 2020 at 9:53 am GMT

GBPUSD topped around 1.3169 twice in a week and reversed south, raising worries that the bulls may soon give up the game in the four-hour chart. While the weakness in the RSI and the MACD is justifying the latest negative move, only a sustainable downfall below 1.2980 would confirm a bearish double top formation and hence, trigger sharper losses towards 1.2850. Before that, a break below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) currently at 1.3060 and into the Ichimoku cloud should also take place. In the positive [..]

Daily Market Comment – Trump fans the geopolitical flames ahead of NFP

Posted on August 7, 2020 at 8:10 am GMT

Nonfarm payrolls to set the tone for markets, along with stimulus negotiations Trump fires another salvo at Beijing, bans transactions with Tencent, moves to delist Chinese firms Geopolitical worries keep dollar alive, Wall Street set to snap 5-day winning streak Nonfarm payrolls: A most uncertain one The main event today will be the US employment report for July. The consensus is for the US economy to have added another 1.6 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down to 10.5%, from [..]

Daily Market Comment – Bank of England lifts sterling; dollar battered but still standing

Posted on August 6, 2020 at 8:25 am GMT

Sterling jumps after BoE seems reluctant towards negative rates, upgrades forecasts Stocks climb, dollar resumes downfall as markets keep betting Congress will deliver Dollar testing a crucial support area again – tomorrow’s NFP may be pivotal Otherwise, the spotlight remains on whether Congress will reach a deal soon BoE strikes a more cheerful tone, pound listens The Bank of England (BoE) unanimously voted to keep its policy unchanged today and struck a fairly optimistic tone. Even though it acknowledged the [..]

Is the pound’s rally premature enthusiasm? – Special Report

Posted on August 5, 2020 at 4:28 pm GMT

The British pound registered sizeable gains in July, soaring by 6.4% against the US dollar as the world was facing its first spike in infection cases since re-opening plans took effect across the globe. Its sudden impressive performance made markets wonder whether they should adopt a sell-the-rally approach or a buy-the-dip mentality in the year ahead. This report suggests that the currency could gain fresh ground in the short-term, though Brexit jitters could challenge the market in the fourth quarter. [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar comeback falters as yields sink, gold sparkles

Posted on August 5, 2020 at 8:39 am GMT

Greenback attempts comeback, but fails as bond yields plummet Gold salutes crumbling dollar and yields, hits new record above $2000 Stocks crawl higher as stimulus negotiations ‘move in the right direction’ Overall, bond market is saying something’s wrong, but stocks don’t mind Falling bond yields stop dollar rebound in its tracks Those hoping for a summer lull in financial markets come August have likely been left disappointed, as there has been absolutely no shortage of volatility so far this week. [..]


Bank of England to hold rates and QE, may clarify stance on negative rates – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 4, 2020 at 1:59 pm GMT

The Bank of England is getting ready for ‘Super Thursday’ this week when it inundates investors with its meeting minutes, the latest outlook report and a press conference on top of its policy decision. But having already beefed up its quantitative easing (QE) programme at the last meeting in June, the Bank is not expected to make any adjustments to its policy when it announces its decision at 11:00 GMT. Instead, Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference at 11:30 GMT will [..]

Daily Market Comment – Nasdaq conquers new heights as US infections slow down

Posted on August 4, 2020 at 8:15 am GMT

Stocks gain altitude on slowing contagion and encouraging data Most currencies trade in wide ranges, but go nowhere Overall, market focus remains on Congress, where little progress is apparently being made Nasdaq hits new records as tech keeps the dream alive Positive sentiment dominated financial markets at the onset of the new week, with global stock indices and risk-sensitive commodities like oil edging higher, powered by a persistent slowdown in US infections and some encouraging manufacturing numbers. America reported fewer [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD gains take a blow; positive signals relatively intact

Posted on August 4, 2020 at 7:31 am GMT

GBPUSD hit a snag after its recent appreciation reached a near five-month high of 1.3169, slightly below a significant resistance at the 1.3200 level. The minor retreat in price is mirrored in the reduced bullish slopes of the Ichimoku lines and the bearish orientation of the stochastic oscillator around the 80 level. That said, the MACD and RSI maintain a paused positive demeanour, while the rising 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) uphold a positive charge. The MACD, deep [..]

Week ahead – Can nonfarm payrolls halt the dollar’s descent?

Posted on July 31, 2020 at 12:41 pm GMT

It’s a huge week ahead, with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England both announcing their rate decisions ahead of the all-important US employment data. For markets, the burning question is whether a decent payrolls report will be enough to halt the dollar’s relentless slide. The other variable that will impact most charts through the risk sentiment channel is whether Congress will reach a compromise on the new rescue package, and if so, how much will they [..]

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