Daily Market Comment – Stocks extend rebound, dollar tanks as Fed taper and Delta worries ease

Posted on August 24, 2021 at 9:12 am GMT

Risk sentiment continues to improve as Fed seen delaying taper signal Delta fears also subside as FDA’s full approval of Pfizer vaccine adds to optimism Wall Street flirts with record highs, dollar flounders as commodity currencies fight back Fed taper expectations pared back amid virus risks Growing signs that the Delta wave is proving to be a bigger headwind for the US economy than initially anticipated have cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve will commit to a tapering timeframe at [..]


US Open Note – Risk currencies become the best performers as delta fears persist

Posted on August 23, 2021 at 1:16 pm GMT

Jackson Hole in focus, as delta strain challenges policy decisions Although not a game changer yet, the RBNZ policy announcement showed last week that the spread of the delta virus strain could bring some rescheduling in monetary policy plans, and therefore some exciting volatility in FX markets. Policymakers postponed a widely expected 25 bps rate hike for later in the year as a handful of new cases was enough to prompt a snap lockdown given the low vaccination rates in [..]

Daily Market Comment – Equities perk up but Delta casts shadow over Jackson Hole

Posted on August 23, 2021 at 9:16 am GMT

Trading gets off to a somewhat more positive start as stocks and commodities rise, dollar slips But Delta surge forces Jackson Hole to go virtual again, taper clues in doubt Flash PMIs in focus amid recovery fears as Delta variant rages on Panic subsides but could be the Fed’s turn to get jittery After a tumultuous week, the market mood brightened somewhat on Monday after stocks on Wall Street extended their rebound on Friday. Bargain hunting appears to be reviving [..]


Week Ahead – Fed taper: will they or won’t they? Splits loom over Jackson Hole

Posted on August 20, 2021 at 1:05 pm GMT

The upcoming week will kick off with a bang as the flash PMI readings for August will flood the markets on Monday. However, it might go all quiet after that before Fed officials gather at Jackson Hole later in the week for this year’s economic symposium, which is set to be dominated by discussions on how and when to unwind the Fed’s emergency stimulus. Will policymakers finally lay out their tapering plans, potentially lifting the US dollar to fresh yearly [..]


US Open Note – FX markets head south; stocks continue to drop

Posted on August 20, 2021 at 12:57 pm GMT

Dollar index rises slightly Watered-down expectations heading into Jackson Hole next week reveal more about the economy than the Fed’s plans to taper. If the Fed does not announce a taper soon, the fear is that they will not have the opportunity to do so if the US virus situation does not get better in the coming months. The US dollar index is surging to a new nine-month high of 93.67 today, posting the fifth consecutive green day. The greenback is flattening against the Japanese [..]


Technical Analysis – NZDUSD licks wounds at 9-month low; more losses may come

Posted on August 20, 2021 at 12:27 pm GMT

NZDUSD slid to a more than 9-month low of 0.6804 on Friday, extending its weekly losses. But the selloff may not be over as the momentum indicators remain deep in bearish territory. The Stochastics have tumbled within the oversold zone but have yet to show signs of reversing higher. The RSI, meanwhile, has flatlined just above the 30 level. The only positive signal is coming from the price having violated the lower Bollinger band, which indicates that a rebound may [..]


US Open Note – Riskier currencies plummet amid dollar strength

Posted on August 19, 2021 at 12:57 pm GMT

FOMC minutes drive dollar up Following the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, the dollar index rose to 93.4 on Thursday, the highest closing level since November 2020. Numerous market participants now believe that the Fed will disclose a tapering timeline at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week. There will be less cash poured into the system if asset purchases are reduced. US stocks slid and are headed for a negative open today, while dollar/yen is heading south around 109.60. [..]


Daily Market Comment – Wall Street slips, dollar shines, RBNZ holds fire

Posted on August 18, 2021 at 8:33 am GMT

Stock markets edge lower after US retail sales disappoint Risk aversion reawakens the dollar ahead of Fed minutes today RBNZ says rate hikes ‘delayed not derailed’, kiwi goes wild Stocks bleed, but not much It was a lively session across global markets. Wall Street came under pressure on Tuesday after US retail sales fell short of expectations, amplifying concerns that consumer spending may be rolling over and reinforcing the narrative that economic growth has already peaked.  Of course, the retreat [..]


US Open Note – US retail sales released with minor impact on dollar; kiwi tumbles

Posted on August 17, 2021 at 1:06 pm GMT

US retail sales miss is mild hit to dollar The recovery in the US dollar after Friday’s sell-off is continuing today, with only a minor market reaction after the retail sales release. Retail sales in the US rose by 1.1% m/m in July versus -0.3% that was the forecast and from an upwardly revised 0.7% in the previous month. The US dollar index is up two days in a row and has nearly retraced half of its previous day’s loss. Dollar/yen is recouping some of the losses of the previous days, trading above 109.00. US [..]


Daily Market Comment – Kiwi tanks ahead of RBNZ, dollar braces for Powell

Posted on August 17, 2021 at 8:34 am GMT

Kiwi burned by doubts about RBNZ rate hike tomorrow  US stocks hit new records, Chinese equities get smoked Dollar braces for US retail sales and Powell speech RBNZ meeting in the spotlight New Zealand just went into a lockdown, after discovering its first locally transmitted covid case in several months. The nation has kept its borders closed since last year to keep the virus out and the government has unleashed tremendous fiscal firepower to keep the economy going.  As such, [..]

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