US Open Note – Turkish lira’s shock waves under control; stocks mildly up

Posted on March 22, 2021 at 1:26 pm GMT

European banks follow Turkish lira lower, but losses under control While the inflation fear factor holds intact in key developed economies even though price indices remain anemic, high inflation has been a truly tragic story in Turkey for a while, forcing the central bank to raise interest rates by two percentage points and more than expected on Friday. Such surprising decisions from emerging markets rarely create any global shock waves, though when President Erdogan, who is a strong opponent to [..]


US Open Note – Markets in peace after US CPI figures meet forecasts; Treasury bond auctions in focus

Posted on March 10, 2021 at 2:11 pm GMT

German DAX 30 hits fresh record high The European session was mostly quiet, with the pan STOXX 600 claiming a small measure of gains as bond yields in the region continued to sideline below this week’s highs along with US Treasury yields. Yet, despite the softer positive tone, the German DAX 30 index managed to pin a new record high slightly above the 14,500 mark on the back of healthcare and real estate shares, which soared by 2.19% and 1.20% [..]


US Open Note – Dollar, bond yields on the retreat; Nasdaq eyes strong rebound

Posted on March 9, 2021 at 2:05 pm GMT

Riskier assets gain on dollar weakness Tuesday brought some risk-on trading back on the surface as the cooling in US Treasury yields and the slowdown in the dollar allowed risk-sensitive currencies to heal. The dollar index could not reach the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) earlier in the day, peaking slightly lower at 92.50 before easing to 92.00. Despite the weakness in the Japanese yen, dollar/yen also pulled back to seek support near 108.80 after marking another higher high at [..]


US Open Note – Dollar bulls outperform as Wall Street prepares for another bumpy day

Posted on March 8, 2021 at 2:18 pm GMT

US futures could face another red day; European stocks recover Upbeat data releases continued to feed expectations of inflamed prices, and therefore an earlier monetary tightening on Monday, despite central banks using verbal intervention last week to play down any adjustment in their ultra-loose accommodative policy for the next couple of years. The US 10-year Treasury yield pared earlier losses on Monday to rise as high as 1.6130%, signaling that the downside pressure on Wall Street may stay in play [..]


US Open Note – Dollar knocks down riskier currencies; House stimulus vote looming

Posted on February 26, 2021 at 2:15 pm GMT

Central banks react after yield rally It was a turbulent week for markets as the rapid rise in global bond yields triggered profit taking on stocks and harmed traditional safe-haven currencies, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to close the week with considerable losses, though hold within the neutral-positive territory in monthly terms. Although investors got assurances from the Fed and other central banks that any tightening in monetary policy was long in the future, the yield rally over [..]


US Open Note – Bond yields shine at fresh highs as US futures struggle; euro bulls gear up

Posted on February 25, 2021 at 2:11 pm GMT

Bond yields shrug of Powell’s comments; US future point to the downside Nothing could stop bond yields from rising on Thursday, not even the Fed chief Powell, who once again told lawmakers of the House of Representatives on Wednesday that a persistent rapid inflation break above 2.0% will not be the case for the next three years. While his remarks assured investors, who were front-running the Fed, that the current ultra-lose monetary policy is here to stay, the US 10-year [..]


US Open Note – Investors give up on traditional safe havens; pound pulls from 1.4235 peak

Posted on February 24, 2021 at 2:08 pm GMT

Stocks heal slightly after Tuesday’s plunge The vaccine euphoria coupled with reopening guidelines and stimulus pledges from several countries continued to lead market sentiment on Wednesday, boosting the appetite for risk-on trades. Fed chief Powell characterized the bond rally as “a statement of confidence” during his virtual semi-annual testimony in the Senate on Tuesday, and once again, reaffirmed that the current accommodative monetary policy will remain in play as long as it is needed, leaving the 10-year Treasury yield elevated [..]


Technical Analysis – US 100 index suffers brutal correction, but uptrend intact

Posted on February 23, 2021 at 4:00 pm GMT

The US 100 index (Cash) has taken heavy fire over the past week, retreating very sharply after touching a record high of 13,904 in mid-February. The speed of the drop has accelerated in the last couple of sessions, but on the bright side, the price structure of higher highs and higher lows has not been violated, keeping the broader uptrend in play. The short-term oscillators reflect the latest correction. The RSI has crossed below the neutral 50 barrier and looks [..]


US Open Note – Dollar up, stocks sharply lower ahead of Powell’s testimony

Posted on February 23, 2021 at 2:10 pm GMT

Waiting for Powell to respond to inflation expectations Rising inflation expectations and the rally in bond yields will be examined during Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate at 15:00 GMT as markets will be eagerly waiting for the Fed chief to update his views regarding price growth, economic expansion and the outlook for monetary policy. Although Powell may prefer to play it safe, reiterating that downside economic risks continue to linger in the background and that it is too early [..]


US Open Note – Riskier currencies cheer on dollar weakness as stocks heal

Posted on February 19, 2021 at 2:16 pm GMT

From optimism to doubts A surprising pickup in US weekly jobless claims proved on Thursday how easily market sentiment can switch from hopes of a speedy recovery to doubts of a robust expansion, triggering a pullback on Wall Street. Although weaker growth prospects tend to hurt bond yields, the US 10-year Treasury yield managed to rebound in the aftermath as the jobs data urged the need for Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package, and therefore signalled an even bigger bond issuance. [..]

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