European session – Jobs number beats estimates but boost to dollar proves short-lived

Posted on July 8, 2016 at 2:46 pm GMT

The release of much better-than-expected jobs figures for June out of the United States put to rest fears that May’s weak report was the beginning of a serious slowdown in the US labor market.  The net number of nonfarm jobs created reached 287 thousand during June against economists’ estimates of just 175 thousand.  However, the previous month’s figure was revised down to 11 thousand from the original 38 thousand announcement.  Unemployment climbed to 4.9% compared to the previous month’s 4.7%, [..]


US Personal Consumption shows economy in good shape during Q2

Posted on June 29, 2016 at 2:28 pm GMT

Personal income and spending numbers for May were released broadly in line with expectations today, but there were upbeat messages from the positive revisions from the previous month’s already strong data. Personal income was the only miss as it came in at a positive 0.2% month-on-month compared to a 0.3% change expected by economists in a Reuters poll.  However, the previous month’s income change was raised to 0.5% from 0.4% initially reported.  Personal consumption met expectations by coming in at [..]


Week Ahead – After Brexit, US and Japan data come in focus

Posted on June 24, 2016 at 2:04 pm GMT

Brexit developments will likely continue to dominate the coming week following the UK’s decision on Thursday to leave the European Union. However, upcoming data out of the US and Japan will be closely monitored as it could sway Fed and Bank of Japan policy. Spanish elections could bring more shocks to the Eurozone Hot on the heels of the UK’s leave vote, the EU could face more headache this weekend as Spain heads to the polls for the second time [..]


Week ahead: Brexit referendum ends months of anticipation; Yellen testifies in Congress

Posted on June 17, 2016 at 2:20 pm GMT

The week ahead will be relatively quiet in terms of economic data, but the eagerly awaited UK referendum on EU membership is expected to unleash major bouts of volatility.  Prior to the referendum that takes place on Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s monetary policy testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday will attract the markets’ attention. Starting from Japan, the country’s exports and imports as well as trade balance for May are due on Monday and they are expected to show a [..]


US economy scorecard after the big miss in jobs

Posted on June 6, 2016 at 2:11 pm GMT

The disappointment following the latest US employment report weighed heavily on the US dollar and on US bond yields as the data brought into question the Fed’s ability to raise rates during its meetings in June or July.  However, it is a good idea to try to put the jobs numbers in a broader context – both comparing with job market numbers of previous months as well as to have a look at other indicators that have been released recently. [..]


Week Ahead – Key week for dollar with payrolls in focus; ECB meeting also eyed

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 1:19 pm GMT

It will be a busy week for US data and the dollar in the next seven days as a number of key indicators are expected including the all-important NFP report at the end of the week. The euro will also come into focus as the European Central Bank holds its scheduled policy meeting, while Chinese PMI and Australian and Canadian GDP numbers will also be important. Japanese household spending likely to fall back in April Japanese data will start the [..]


Week Ahead – Busy week for PMI and GDP data; Fed speakers also eyed

Posted on May 20, 2016 at 12:55 pm GMT

Preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone will be among the main data releases of the coming week along with second estimate GDP for the first quarter for the UK, the US and Germany, as well as Japanese inflation. The US calendar will be the busiest with housing data and durable goods orders also due. However, upcoming speeches from several Fed officials could attract more attention given the recent strong signals coming from the Fed lately on a possible June/July rate hike. [..]


US consumer prices post biggest monthly gains since 2013; dollar mixed

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 2:10 pm GMT

Consumer prices in the United States posted their biggest month-on-month increase in April since February 2013, adding to the evidence of steadily rising inflationary pressures in the country. CPI in April was up 0.4% from the previous month – the biggest increase in three years and above forecasts of 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI rose by 1.1% – in line with estimates but up from 0.9% in March. The core rate, which excludes food and energy items, also quickened [..]


US retail sales rise the most in a year; dollar jumps higher

Posted on May 13, 2016 at 2:58 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States grew at the fastest rate since March 2015 as consumer spending appeared to be rebounding in April following a slowdown in the first quarter. Monthly retail sales rose sharply by 1.3% in April versus estimates of a 0.8% increase and a rebound from the previous month’s 0.3% decline. On a 12-month basis, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% in April from 1.7% in March. Excluding volatile items such as motor vehicles and parts, retail sales [..]


Week Ahead – Inflation data to dominate but Japan GDP also to be watched

Posted on May 13, 2016 at 1:08 pm GMT

Inflation data will dominate over the coming week as the UK and the US will release April CPI figures, while the Eurozone will publish its final CPI readings. The UK will remain in focus with the release of retail sales and unemployment numbers but Japanese GDP data could prove to be the biggest market mover as it is likely to influence Bank of Japan policy. Flurry of UK data may get side-lined by Brexit developments Following the Bank of England’s [..]

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