US retail sales disappoint again; dollar rise capped

Posted on April 13, 2016 at 3:07 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States ended the first quarter in a downbeat mode as they declined by 0.3% between February and March. Expectations were for retail sales to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in March. An upward revision to February’s figure was not enough to lift the gloom for the first quarter as it was only revised up from -0.1% to 0.0%, while January’s reading was revised down from 0.2% to -0.4%. March retail spending was dragged lower by a [..]


Week Ahead – RBA meeting and industrial output in focus

Posted on April 1, 2016 at 12:22 pm GMT

The first week of the second quarter of 2016 looks set to start on a calm note with European industrial output data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April policy meeting likely to dominate the next seven days. Eurozone The Eurozone will have the busiest week starting with unemployment, producer prices and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index all out on Monday. Producer prices in February are expected to fall deeper into negative territory from -2.9% to -4.0%, highlighting the [..]


Personal spending and PCE deflator misses estimates, hurts dollar

Posted on March 28, 2016 at 2:50 pm GMT

The first item of news following the Easter holiday was a negative for the US dollar, as personal spending missed expectations while inflation also came in lower than expectations.  There was also a substantial negative revision of January’s personal spending growth (adjusted for inflation), to unchanged from an original +0.4% month-on-month growth rate. Starting with the personal income side, the news appeared encouraging as it posted a 0.2% increase (above expectations) from January, when it had risen by 0.5%.  Wages [..]


Week Ahead – Eurozone PMI and UK, Japan inflation to dominate in quiet week

Posted on March 18, 2016 at 3:56 pm GMT

After an intense two weeks of central bank activity, it will be a relatively quieter week ahead of the Western Easter break. Along with Eurozone flash PMI, inflation data for the UK and Japan will be the main data to watch over the coming seven days. Starting the week will be housing data for the United States. Existing home sales are due on Monday and are forecast to show a 2.9% decline over the month in February. New home sales [..]


Dollar mixed after strong jobs gain as wage growth disappoints

Posted on March 4, 2016 at 3:37 pm GMT

The US economy added 242k jobs in February according to the latest non-farm payrolls reports, beating consensus estimates of 195k jobs. Adding to the strong data was an upward revision to January’s figure, which was revised from 151k to 172k jobs. The dollar initially spiked up 0.3% to 114.21 yen after the data and the euro fell 0.6% to 1.0902 dollars as it cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick with its policy of gradual increases to the fed [..]


US GDP in surprise upward revision; dollar/yen lifted to 1-week high

Posted on February 26, 2016 at 4:03 pm GMT

The US economy expanded by more than initially estimated in the final three months of 2015 as inventories rose by more than first reported. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1% in the fourth quarter, up from initial estimates of 0.7% and above consensus forecasts of a 0.4% expansion. However, this still represents a slowdown from the 2.0% rate seen in the previous quarter. The main changes in the second estimate that drove the upward revision were higher inventories, [..]


Week Ahead – Busy week for Japan, Eurozone and US data; China PMI and RBA also eyed

Posted on February 26, 2016 at 1:32 pm GMT

It will be a data-packed week for Japan, the Eurozone and the United States in the next seven days with Japanese industrial production, Eurozone flash inflation and US NFP report among the major releases. Also headlining will be the latest manufacturing surveys out of China and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March policy meeting. Japanese data will start the week on Monday with the release of industrial production and retail sales numbers for January. Industrial production is forecast to rebound [..]


Upbeat January retail sales data briefly lift dollar

Posted on February 12, 2016 at 3:43 pm GMT

Retail sales data out of the United States today showed consumer spending remained buoyant in the first month of the year. Total retail sales rose by 0.2% month-on-month in January, beating estimates of a 0.1% increase. The data is even more upbeat when considering the revision to December’s figure, which was revised up to 0.2% from -0.1%. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales were up 3.4%. The ‘control’ measure of retail sales, which excludes sales of volatile items, rebounded even [..]


Yellen maintains inflation outlook but highlights growing risks

Posted on February 10, 2016 at 6:37 pm GMT

In her testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke about the growing risks to the US economy in her first public statement since the December rate hike. While maintaining the Fed’s outlook that the economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace and inflation will return to the 2% objective in the medium term, Yellen stressed that monetary policy was not on a “preset course”. Pointing to the recent falls in equity prices and [..]


Personal spending flat in December as US consumers save more

Posted on February 1, 2016 at 3:43 pm GMT

Personal consumption expenditure was flat in December month-on-month, falling short of expectations of a 0.1% gain. The lacklustre spending data contrasts with a healthier monthly rise of 0.3% in personal income in December. The figure was slightly better-than-expectations of a 0.2% gain and suggests that US consumers are being cautious and saving more. The savings ratio increased to 5.5% from 5.3% during the period. There was however an upward revision to the previous month’s consumption figures, which was revised up to [..]

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