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Week Ahead – Busy week for China, Eurozone and UK data; ECB and Bank of Canada meetings also eyed

Posted on January 15, 2016 at 11:43 am GMT

Economic data will be getting into full swing next week with a number of key releases for China, the United States, the Eurozone and Britain. Central banks will also be in focus as the ECB meets for the first time since December when it underwhelmed markets with its policy decision, while the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates for the first time since July 2015. The week will initially get off to a quiet start as US markets will [..]

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What to watch during the week: US employment and Eurozone inflation

Posted on January 4, 2016 at 1:43 pm GMT

Coming back from the New Year’s celebrations, investors and traders are likely to find their plates full this week with interesting economic releases from around the world as well as geopolitical developments and currency and stock market moves from China. First of all, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will mark the first really important economic statistic of the New Year out of the United States.  Economic data following the Fed’s first rate hike on December 16 have not exactly been stellar and [..]

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Forex Markets 2015/16: Annual Review & Outlook

Posted on December 24, 2015 at 9:41 am GMT

By all accounts, 2015 was the year of the dollar as the greenback surged against its major counterparts.  The dollar was up around 10% versus a basket of trade-weighted currencies, with some of its strongest gains registered versus commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, while it also gained around 10% versus the euro on policy divergence.  Interestingly, the dollar’s gains were not evenly distributed throughout the year as the dollar index surged to a fresh [..]

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US durable goods orders unchanged but personal consumption rises

Posted on December 23, 2015 at 3:51 pm GMT

Data out of the US today was mixed but the dollar responded positively to the numbers, edging higher in late European trading. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE), which was inadvertently released late on Tuesday ahead of schedule, quickened to 0.3% month-on-month in November from a downwardly revised flat rate in October. The figure was in line with estimates. Personal income slowed slightly to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.4% the prior month. However, it beat expectations of a 0.2% rise. Wages and salaries [..]

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Better-than-expected US GDP revision fails to lift dollar

Posted on December 22, 2015 at 3:17 pm GMT

US economic growth was revised slightly lower in the final estimate of third quarter GDP growth. The economy expanded by an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of the year against second estimates of 2.1% growth. The figure is ahead of forecasts of 1.9% expansion. The downward revision was primarily due to private inventory investment being revised lower. The third quarter growth is almost half the rate of that seen in the second quarter when the economy grew [..]

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Week ahead – GDP revisions in UK, US, Japanese inflation and Xmas

Posted on December 18, 2015 at 1:43 pm GMT

Following the interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve on December 16, it looks like the year’s most important story has already been written.  Looking ahead to what should be a relatively quiet week, there will be some economic news from the UK and the US in the form of revisions to GDP data.  Furthermore, there will be some updates from Japan in terms of inflation and Bank of Japan minutes. Starting from the UK, final GDP numbers for the [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDCAD Monthly breaks fresh 12-year highs; eyes 1.45

Posted on December 18, 2015 at 8:39 am GMT

The loonie fell to fresh 12-year lows versus the greenback, as weakness in the oil price (oil is a major export for Canada) combined with bullish sentiment on the US dollar led the USDCAD pair substantially higher.  The loonie is now the worst performing G10 currency of the year versus the US dollar with year-to-date losses in excess of 18%. The latest move has been relatively sudden and sharp and this is reflected in the relative strength index (RSI), which [..]

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Another strong US NFP report clears path for Fed rate hike

Posted on December 4, 2015 at 3:34 pm GMT

Nonfarm payrolls in the United States had another strong showing in November, rising by 211k and beating estimates of 200k. In further support of today’s solid rise, last month’s robust increase was revised up from 271k to 298k. The strong readings clear the way for the Federal Reserve to proceed with its first rate rise since June 2006. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in November, while the labor force participation rate improved slightly to 62.5% from 62.4% in [..]

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