Another strong US NFP report clears path for Fed rate hike

Posted on December 4, 2015 at 3:34 pm GMT

Nonfarm payrolls in the United States had another strong showing in November, rising by 211k and beating estimates of 200k. In further support of today’s solid rise, last month’s robust increase was revised up from 271k to 298k. The strong readings clear the way for the Federal Reserve to proceed with its first rate rise since June 2006. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in November, while the labor force participation rate improved slightly to 62.5% from 62.4% in [..]


Week Ahead – Bank of England and RBNZ meet; Japan GDP could get revised to positive growth

Posted on December 4, 2015 at 12:54 pm GMT

Central Bank meetings will continue into next week with the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holding their respective policy meetings. Also to watch out next week are the Chinese trade data and Japanese GDP revision, which could show Japan avoided technical recession in the third quarter. German industrial production data will start the week on Monday. Industrial production is expected to rebound in October, and is forecast to rise by 0.7% m/m after shrinking by [..]


US GDP revised higher in third quarter as Fed hike moves closer

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 4:20 pm GMT

US economic growth in the third quarter was revised higher today as the decline in inventory investment was less than initially estimated. GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the third quarter of the year, versus previous estimates of 1.5%. The revision was in line with forecasts and underscores the strength of the US economy at a time when the US Federal Reserve is looking to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years. The upward [..]


Week Ahead – Eurozone PMI, US and UK 2nd estimate of GDP and Japan inflation to be watched

Posted on November 20, 2015 at 12:55 pm GMT

The key indicators next week will be the flash November PMI readings for the Eurozone and second estimates of third quarter GDP figures for the United States and the United Kingdom. But CPI and household spending data from Japan will also be closely watched. The flash November PMI data for the Eurozone will start the week on Monday. The manufacturing and services PMI are released for Germany, France and the euro area as a whole. Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone [..]


US inflation edges up in October; dollar unmoved

Posted on November 17, 2015 at 3:18 pm GMT

Annual inflation showed signs of picking up in the United States as the 12-month CPI rate increased to 0.2% in October from 0.0% in September. The figure was slightly stronger than the 0.1% rate expected by economists. On a month-on-month basis, prices were up 0.2% in October – the first rise in three months, which was in line with estimates. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy items, was unchanged at 1.9% on a yearly basis, while the month-on-month rate [..]


Technical Analysis – USDCAD breaks above cloud; eyes 11-year high at 1.3456

Posted on November 16, 2015 at 10:21 am GMT

The US dollar has made some significant advances versus the Canadian dollar following a 4-month low that was registered in mid-October (1.2828).  Since then, a rebound in the greenback and more weakness in crude oil has added to pressure on the loonie, which is on track to  challenge the 11-year high of 1.3456.  The greenback is currently buying 1.3305 Canadian dollars. Looking at the technical picture, it appears quite favorable for further US dollar gains.  Since November 6, the pair [..]


US retail sales disappoint in October; unlikely to detract Fed in rate decision

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 3:04 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States rose by less than expected in October, posting a modest growth of just 0.1% month-on-month. Consensus estimates were for retail sales to grow by 0.3% m/m. Adding to the feeble data was a downward revision to the previous month’s figure, which was revised down to 0% from 0.1% m/m. On a 12-month basis, retail sales were 1.7% higher. The core retail sales measure, which excludes items such as building materials, motor vehicles and parts, [..]


Week Ahead – US, UK and Eurozone inflation to be eyed; Japan GDP could point to recession

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 12:51 pm GMT

Inflation data will be the main theme of the coming week as October CPI readings are published for the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as the final CPI numbers for the Eurozone. Japanese GDP data will also be closely watched as it could show that Japan slipped into recession in the third quarter of the year. Japan will start the week with GDP data on Monday. The economy is forecast to have contracted for the second consecutive [..]


Week Ahead – China data and Eurozone Q3 GDP to be the main focus

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 1:11 pm GMT

Central banks will take a backseat next week as attention turns to China for the latest economic indicators out of the country. Trade data, retail sales and industrial production figures will be some of the data released in China next week. Third quarter GDP data out of the Eurozone will also be closely watched as the European Central Bank ponders whether to provide additional monetary stimulus when it meets next month. Starting the week on Sunday will be the latest [..]


US economy loses momentum in Q3 on weak inventories

Posted on October 29, 2015 at 2:43 pm GMT

US GDP growth slowed in the third quarter of the year, expanding at an annualized rate of 1.5% according to the advance estimate – sharply down from the second quarter’s 3.9%. Consensus estimates were for GDP to grow by 1.6%. The slower growth was attributed to a downturn in private inventory investment, which deducted 1.44% from GDP growth in the July-September quarter. Exports also slowed as the combination of a strong dollar and weak overseas demand held back export growth. [..]

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