US durable goods orders fall again in September

Posted on October 27, 2015 at 2:15 pm GMT

Orders for durable goods – an important gauge of business spending in the US – fell by 1.2% month-on-month in September, slightly above estimates of a 1.5% drop. This follows a downwardly revised figure of -3.0% in August. Excluding transport equipment, durable goods orders fell by a smaller 0.4%, though this was sharply below forecasts that it would stay unchanged. The core rate was also subject to a downward revision for August, which was lowered to -0.9% from 0.0%. Another [..]


Week Ahead – Markets await China GDP, ECB meeting and flash PMI data

Posted on October 16, 2015 at 10:28 am GMT

Following a week of key indicators that on balance favored a US and UK rate hike, it will be the turn of the euro to come into sharp focus as the ECB meets to consider whether further monetary easing is necessary for the Eurozone. Before that though, investors will be on edge for key data coming out of China at the start of the week. Monday will see the release of third quarter GDP data for China, which is expected [..]


Dollar firms on stronger-than-expected inflation figures

Posted on October 15, 2015 at 1:59 pm GMT

US consumer prices were unchanged in September on an annual basis as CPI fell to 0.0% from 0.2% the prior month. This was slightly above estimates that consumer prices would fall by -0.1%. On a month-on-month basis, CPI fell for the second month in-a-row to -0.2% from -0.1%, in-line with estimates. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was also stronger-than-expected. Core CPI edged up to 0.2% month-on-month, above estimates of that it would rise by 0.1%. The 12-month [..]


US retail sales miss estimates sending dollar lower

Posted on October 14, 2015 at 2:14 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States remained near stagnant for the second straight month in September as consumers appear to be cautious about their spending plans despite lower gasoline prices. Total retail sales rose by just 0.1% month-on-month in September and were up 2.4% from a year ago. Consensus estimates were for retail sales to rise by 0.2% after not recording any growth in the previous month, revised figures showed today. When excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales fell [..]


Week Ahead – Inflation data to come in focus but China trade data also eyed

Posted on October 9, 2015 at 12:12 pm GMT

Inflation data will be the dominant data theme in the coming week as CPI figures are published for the United States, United Kingdom, China and the Eurozone. Industrial production will also come into focus as data is due from the US, Japan and the Eurozone, as well as Chinese trade data. The start of the week is expected to be fairly quiet though as Japan, Canada and the US markets are closed for national holidays. After this week’s Bank of [..]


US GDP revised up again in Q2 on stronger consumer spending

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 2:17 pm GMT

US economic growth was revised higher again in the second quarter of the year. The third estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9% on an annualized basis. This comes after the second estimate was revised higher from 2.3% to 3.7% back in August. Forecasts were for GDP growth to stay unrevised. The upward revision was attributed mainly to stronger consumer spending but higher construction also drove growth during the period. Personal consumption [..]


US inflation in line with estimates rounds up Fed’s economic picture

Posted on September 16, 2015 at 2:09 pm GMT

The release of US inflation for August rounded up the key indicators that the Federal Open Market Committee will have in front of it when deciding on whether to raise interest rates tomorrow.  The main numbers were roughly in line with expectations, with only core inflation year-on-year slightly below what was expected. The year-on-year headline inflation rate was 0.2%, which confirmed the absence of inflation pressures in the economy.  The core inflation rate came in much higher at 1.8%.  While [..]


US August retail sales show consumer on track

Posted on September 15, 2015 at 2:16 pm GMT

Source: TRADINGECONOMICS.COM   The retail sales report for August contained few surprises and overall did little to sway opinions regarding the Fed’s crucial rate decision on Thursday. Headline retail sales missed expectations by a narrow margin as they came in at 0.2% compared to 0.3% expected.  Compensating however was an upward revision in July’s increase to 0.7% from 0.6% originally reported.  It appears that the retail sales miss on a headline level had more to do with the drop in [..]


Mixed US jobs report fails to deliver decisive rate hike case for Fed

Posted on September 7, 2015 at 11:59 am GMT

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 173,000 in August – the slowest pace in five months and below consensus estimates of a gain of 220,000. However, upward revision to previous months’ numbers revealed that jobs growth has been stronger than initially estimated, leading to a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% from 5.3% in July. This takes the unemployment rate to the lowest level since April 2008. But the drop in the unemployment rate looks less impressive when considering the [..]


US consumer spending rises less than expected; Core PCE eases in July

Posted on August 28, 2015 at 2:06 pm GMT

US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose by less than expected in July, increasing by 0.3% in July from the previous month. This was below estimates of 0.4% but there was upward revision to previous months’ numbers. The figure, while slightly below expectations, shows that consumer spending in the US is continuing to recover after a patchy 2014. There was a large jump in purchases for durable goods, which climbed by 1.3% in July versus a fall of 0.9% in the [..]

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