Week Ahead – RBA and ECB meetings, final US payrolls before Fed September meeting in focus

Posted on August 28, 2015 at 12:09 pm GMT

The first week of September sees the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meet for their latest monetary policy meetings. After a busy week of numbers for the US, the main US data that will be high on investors watch is the August payrolls data, which will be the final set before the FOMC meets later in the month. ECB’s Governing Council is to hold its latest monetary policy meeting on Thursday, which will be [..]


Dollar up as US Q2 GDP revised higher by more than expected to 3.7%

Posted on August 27, 2015 at 2:25 pm GMT

US GDP growth for the second quarter was revised higher to 3.7% from 2.3% in the initial estimate. Consensus estimates were for GDP to be revised to 3.2%. The upward revision to second quarter growth comes after first quarter growth was also revised higher to 0.6% back in July, suggesting the US economy has been more resilient in weathering transitory factors and weak global demand than initially anticipated. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the improved GDP numbers [..]


Week Ahead – US data to keep dollar in spotlight; Q2 GDP likely to get revised up

Posted on August 21, 2015 at 1:50 pm GMT

The week ahead will be relatively light in terms of major data with the exception of the United States, which has a busy calendar for the coming week. Figures for new home sales, durable goods and personal spending could prove crucial ahead of the Fed’s September meeting. Second estimates of second quarter GDP data for the US, UK and Germany will also be closely watched. The first of the GDP data will come from Germany with the final estimate for [..]


US inflation softer than expected; dollar bounces back after brief drop

Posted on August 19, 2015 at 2:13 pm GMT

US inflation showed little sign of accelerating in July as the annual rate of CPI rose by 0.2%, in-line with estimates and only slightly higher than June’s 0.1%. The month-on-month change was below estimates as prices rose by just 0.1%, the slowest rate since April, against forecasts of a 0.2% rise. The core CPI rate, which excludes food and energy items, held steady at 1.8%, which was within estimates. But the month-on-month rate came in at 0.1%, below forecasts of [..]


European Session – Dollar surges on nonfarm payrolls data; euro back below 1.09

Posted on August 7, 2015 at 2:34 pm GMT

US Nonfarm payrolls were slightly below expectations in July, coming in at 215k, against estimates of 225k. But the previous month’s figure was revised higher to 231k from 223k. The unemployment rate was stable at 5.3% in July. Average hourly earnings was slightly below estimates of 2.3%, coming in at 2.1%, due to downward revisions to previous months’ numbers and showing little sign of accelerating. But the dollar surged ahead despite the mixed data as markets view the job numbers [..]


Week Ahead – Eurozone Q2 GDP and UK jobs in focus

Posted on August 7, 2015 at 12:58 pm GMT

The euro is likely to come back into the spotlight next week after a lull in recent weeks. The Eurozone will see its first estimate of second quarter growth and UK unemployment data will also be closely watched, in addition to US retail sales and various industrial production data. The week will get off to a quiet start with only inflation data from China likely to interest the markets. CPI data out on Sunday is expected to show Chinese inflation [..]


Technical Analysis – US dollar rises to 11-year high against loonie on oil price drop

Posted on August 4, 2015 at 9:01 am GMT

The US dollar rose to its highest in 11 years against its northern neighbor the Canadian dollar, after the price of oil crashed again to below 47 dollars a barrel. The US dollar had some trouble to convincingly break the psychologically important 1.30 level following initial attempts in mid-July.  The 2009 high of 1.3063 was overcome on 31st July, which led to fresh 11-year peaks at 1.3175 – the highest since September of 2004. However, the RSI is signaling overbought [..]


European Session – Euro steady but dollar lower on manufacturing data

Posted on August 3, 2015 at 2:09 pm GMT

Major currencies were mostly steady on Monday and manufacturing data had limited impact. Earlier in the day, weak manufacturing PMI from China added more worries on the growth outlook in the world’s second largest economy. Eurozone final manufacturing PMI was slightly better-than-expected in July at 52.4, and an improvement on June’s 52.2. There was strong growth in the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Austria. But France was the only other nation apart from Greece that had a reading below 50, which [..]


Asian Session – Dollar and euro steady; weak China PMI weighs on Asian markets

Posted on August 3, 2015 at 8:13 am GMT

The dollar was steady in Monday’s Asian session after seeing some volatility on Friday. Weaker-than-expected employment cost index caused a dollar sell-off on Friday but the greenback managed to stage a late US session rally to recover most of its losses. The trigger for the dollar’s reversal was comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who was quoted as saying that the US economy was “in good shape”. The dollar was back above the 124 handle against the yen, [..]


Week Ahead – Focus on US jobs and central banks as BoE, RBA and BoJ meet

Posted on July 31, 2015 at 12:36 pm GMT

With the Fed’s July policy meeting out of the way, focus will turn next week on the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hold their scheduled monetary policy meetings. US employment numbers will also be closely eyed in addition to personal spending data. Starting the week, will be the Markit final manufacturing PMI for China, Japan and the Eurozone for July, as well as the main release for the UK. China’s final PMI [..]

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