Week Ahead – Fed meeting, barrage of data, and tech earnings

Posted on January 22, 2021 at 12:22 pm GMT

With President Biden now in office, markets will be on alert for any remarks from US Senators about whether they’d support the massive stimulus bill he proposed. A tough negotiating battle could see the final proposal being watered down. The Federal Reserve will meet as well. No policy changes are on the menu, so Chairman Powell is likely to reaffirm that it’s too early to discuss tapering. There’s also a blitz of economic data, including fourth-quarter GDP from America and [..]

Daily Market Comment – Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan sparks profit-taking

Posted on January 15, 2021 at 9:28 am GMT

Stock markets drift lower as Biden’s relief plan raises execution questions Dollar undecided, caught between mild risk aversion and dovish Powell Euro starts pricing in the risks, sterling smiles as UK vaccinations accelerate Today: US retail sales, big bank earnings, and German leadership contest Markets worry Biden’s proposal will be watered down The US President-elect unveiled his new stimulus package to reawaken the American economy, which would cost $1.9 trillion. It includes direct payments of $1400, aid for state and [..]

Daily Market Comment – Investors brace for Biden’s stimulus plan

Posted on January 14, 2021 at 9:23 am GMT

US President-elect Biden to unveil his stimulus proposal (00:15 GMT Friday) Size and details of the plan crucial for fate of dollar and equities Markets quiet overall waiting for Biden, ignore Trump impeachment Fed chief Powell speaks, ECB minutes coming up, Italian politics eyed Dollar’s fortunes hang on Biden’s proposal The main event today will be the unveiling of incoming US president Biden’s stimulus plan. The overall price tag of the package will likely be the main variable for markets, [..]

Daily Market Comment – Euro ignores Merkel’s warning of prolonged German lockdown

Posted on January 13, 2021 at 9:19 am GMT

Dollar retreats after Fed officials play down prospect of QE tapering Euro capitalizes on dollar’s woes, even as Merkel warns of extended lockdown Stock markets quiet, but crude oil continues impressive bull run US inflation data and Fed speakers today could set the tone Dollar retreats as Fed’s George plays down tapering The world’s reserve currency came back under selling pressure on Tuesday as Fed officials poured cold water on speculation around a withdrawal of their massive liquidity programs. The [..]

Daily Market Comment – Fed officials talk tapering

Posted on January 12, 2021 at 9:16 am GMT

Dollar buoyed by rising US yields as Fed discusses QE tapering Stock markets suffer a rare pullback, dragged lower by big tech Sterling gets its feet under it as BoE Governor plays down negative rates Parade of Fed speakers today – normalization remarks crucial US growth expectations reflected in rising yields Fed remarks about a potential scaling back of the QE program eclipsed everything else in a rather quiet session on Monday, pushing US Treasury yields higher and helping the [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar and equities roar as Biden promises fresh stimulus

Posted on January 11, 2021 at 9:52 am GMT

President-elect Biden pledges new relief package worth ‘trillions’ Stocks hit new records, dollar comes back to life, gold purged Is the market now trading the ‘growth narrative’ instead of ‘reflation’? Reflation or growth trade? It matters for USD Hopes that the Biden administration will unleash a federal spending spree came to fruition late last week, after the incoming US President pledged a new relief package in the ‘trillions of dollars’ to revitalize the American economy. The details of this plan [..]

Week Ahead – The calm before the stimulus storm?

Posted on January 8, 2021 at 1:32 pm GMT

It looks like a quiet week for global markets, with no major central bank meetings and only a handful of key data releases. The highlight may be the US CPI data, which will tell us how inflationary pressures are evolving, but even that could pass unnoticed. Instead, the main driver for markets may be any signals around a new relief package once the Democrats take over the US government. If so, the ‘reflation trade’ could continue to dominate. Stimulus hopes [..]

Daily Market Comment – Biden floats new stimulus bill, US jobs report coming up

Posted on January 8, 2021 at 9:30 am GMT

Equity party continues to rage amid whispers of $3 trillion infrastructure bill Yen and gold suffer as global bond yields climb Dollar extends rebound ahead of nonfarm payrolls – an asymmetric event? Stock market freight train keeps on rolling Global markets remain in an ecstatic mood, with US equities powering to new record highs and defensive plays falling apart, as expectations for gargantuan stimulus packages in America continue to be baked in. The Democrats taking full control of Congress has [..]

Daily Market Comment – Stocks power higher as Democrats take Senate, despite chaos on Capitol Hill

Posted on January 7, 2021 at 9:51 am GMT

Equities hit new record highs as Democrats take full control of Congress But havoc on Capitol Hill keeps animal spirits in check Dollar kept alive by spike in real yields, gold not as fortunate Overall, Congress and Fed working together implies rosy outlook for riskier assets Markets rally as stimulus hopes overpower social unrest The Democratic party has officially taken full control of Congress after winning both Senate seats from Georgia, setting the stage for bigger spending packages to bolster [..]


Technical Analysis – US 500 index gives up gains after fresh all-time highs

Posted on January 4, 2021 at 3:40 pm GMT

The US 500 stock index (cash) added another record high of 3,780 to its collection in the first trading day of the year before giving up all the gains to test the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) in the four-hour chart. Unless the 20-period SMA catches the fall around 3,740, the decline could get new legs within the bearish Bollinger band area, shifting the spotlight towards the 3,723 – 3,710 support zone. Beneath the latter, the 100-period SMA at 3,700 may attempt [..]

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