Daily Market Comment – ECB meets after BoC sinks loonie; risk appetite wobbles

Posted on January 23, 2020 at 9:28 am GMT

ECB to stay on hold – risks tilted towards a slightly more upbeat narrative BoC teases rate cut, sends loonie plunging Yen jumps as China seals off major city to avoid virus contagion Pound and aussie soar after strong data diminish odds of rate cuts ECB decision: No action, but perhaps a less dovish tone All eyes will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) today, which concludes its policy meeting at 12:45 GMT. No action is expected, so the [..]

Daily Market Comment – Don’t fear the virus; BoC rate decision in sight

Posted on January 22, 2020 at 9:17 am GMT

BoC to stay on hold, but any hints of concern might elicit sharp downside in loonie Risk sentiment recovers as concerns about the virus fade Decent UK data lift sterling, but PMIs will be the casting vote on rate cut BoC meeting: Another asymmetric event for the loonie The main event today will be the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision at 15:00 GMT. A press conference by Governor Poloz will follow about an hour later. Rates are almost certain [..]

Bank of Canada to hold rates steady but loonie could drift lower – Forex News Preview

Posted on January 21, 2020 at 4:31 pm GMT

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT and set a new tone for 2020 as a layer of global uncertainty on the trade front has been removed. Markets, however, may have overpriced the positive developments, exposing the loonie to a downside correction if the BoC governor delivers cautious comments about the country’s 2020 performance. Yet, a rate cut in 2020 might not work in policymakers’ favor as household remain highly [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar grinds higher, Wall Street hits new records

Posted on January 20, 2020 at 9:32 am GMT

Greenback outperforms as incoming data reaffirm strength of US economy Pound crumbles after soft retail sales enhance case for a BoE rate cut next week Bank of Japan rate decision coming up; supply disruptions boost oil Solid US data lift dollar, catapult US stocks to fresh records The dollar was the star performer in the FX market on Friday, advancing across the board after the latest batch of US data beat forecasts, feeding the narrative that the American economy continues [..]

Week ahead – ECB, BoJ, and BoC meet before crucial European and UK PMIs

Posted on January 17, 2020 at 1:41 pm GMT

It’s going to be an action-packed week, with three major central bank meetings and a storm of economic data likely to keep traders glued to their screens. The European Central Bank is unlikely to signal anything radical, so the euro might be driven mainly by the bloc’s PMI data. The Bank of Japan meeting could also be a snoozer, though there is a case to be made for the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish tone. In Britain, [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCAD needs rally above 1.3100 for bulls to gain traction

Posted on January 17, 2020 at 8:27 am GMT

USDCAD is retreating below the 50- period simple moving average (SMA) in the four-hour chart which nicely kept the bears under control on Thursday. Technically the pair could perform neutral to negative in the short-term as the RSI is slipping below 50 and the MACD is fluctuating marginally below its zero and signal lines, whilst in Ichimoku indicators, the red Tenkan-sen line which is moving below the blue Kijun-sen line is another discouraging signal. Below the Ichimoku cloud, the 1.3000 [..]

Daily Market Comment – US stocks carve out new highs ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

Posted on January 10, 2020 at 9:16 am GMT

Wall Street hits new records and US jobs data today may add fuel to the rally Canada’s employment figures also due – asymmetric risk for loonie? Pound drops on dovish BoE comments and may still have some way to go Nonfarm payrolls: More fuel for stocks? The main event today will be the US employment report for December. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are forecast to clock in at 164k, less than the astounding 266k in November, but still a solid number [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCAD climbs higher but is capped by 20-SMA

Posted on January 10, 2020 at 7:18 am GMT

USDCAD recorded its third day of gains after a failed attempt to break significantly below the 21-month low of 1.2950 on Tuesday. In the longer-term timeframe, the pair is still moving in a bearish direction. Chances for a short-term reversal are increasing as the stochastic oscillator is approaching its overbought territory. Moreover, the MACD posted a bullish crossover with its trigger line in the bearish area, suggesting a possible upside correction. However, the pair hit the 20-period simple moving average [..]

Loonie braces for Canadian jobs data and Poloz’s speech – Forex News Preview

Posted on January 9, 2020 at 1:25 pm GMT

The latest employment figures out of Canada will be released at 13:30 GMT on Friday. Recent data have been disappointing, which puts extra emphasis on the upcoming numbers to either confirm that the economy is losing steam or dispel such concerns. As for the loonie, the risks surrounding its reaction seem asymmetric, with any disappointment generating bigger losses compared to the corresponding gains in case the data beat expectations. Separately, BoC Governor Poloz will speak today at 19:00 GMT, and [..]

Daily Market Comment – Iran attacks US bases, but risk aversion doesn’t last

Posted on January 8, 2020 at 9:16 am GMT

Safe havens spike higher, stocks drop as Iran hits US bases in Iraq Yet, risk aversion fades as both sides show little appetite for more escalation Meanwhile, dollar advances on healthy US data, aussie burned by wildfires Oil and gold jump, stock futures briefly dip after Iran strikes back Tehran didn’t take long to retaliate against the US assassination of its most powerful general, as overnight Iran attacked with ballistic missiles two military bases in Iraq that are hosting American [..]

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