Technical Analysis – AUDJPY sellers deflect price off 200-day MA; attempt to boost bearish bias


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

AUDJPY is trying to push below the 100- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) presently at 73.67. The bears reversed the pair back down at the 200-day SMA and forced a closure below the 75.32 resistance, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 80.70 to 69.94.

The short-term oscillators imply that bearish momentum is increasing. The downward-sloping RSI has declined into the bearish region. Moreover, the MACD in the positive zone, has dropped below its red trigger line. The Tenkan-sen line has turned down towards the Kijun-sen line, adding extra bearish signals.

If the sellers penetrate below the coupled 100- and 40-day SMAs around 73.67, the Ichimoku cloud and support of 73.00 may halt a further drop directed to the 23.6% Fibo at 72.49. Moving lower, the swing low of 71.72 could interrupt the bears ahead of the 71.00 handle and multi-year lows of 70.50 and 69.94.

If the joined SMAs at 73.67 hold their ground, the 38.2% Fibo of 74.05 could be first to apply pressure ahead of the 74.48 inside swing high of September 13. If the bulls continue, a retest of a tougher region of 75.32 to 75.65, which encapsulates the 200-day SMA could challenge efforts to test the key resistance level of 76.60.

Overall, the short-term bias looks bearish and a close below 71.72 would strengthen negative sentiment. However, a break above the 200-day SMA and 76.60 could reinstall the bias bullish.