Technical Analysis – AUDJPY still cautiously positive, but rally capped by 75.60


Marios Hadjikyriacos, XM Investment Research Desk

AUDJPY has been posting higher peaks and higher troughs in recent months, above an uptrend line drawn from the lows of August. The near-term outlook therefore seems positive now, though the inability of the bulls to post a closing candle above 75.60 is worrisome and suggests some cause for caution. A clear break above 75.60 is needed to put these concerns to bed and reaffirm the bullish picture.

Short term oscillators are in line with the cautiously positive outlook. The RSI is in its bullish territory, but seems to have flattened out, while the MACD recently crossed above its red trigger line and is moving higher.

If buyers retake control soon and successfully pierce above 75.60, that would turn the picture clearly positive, opening the door for a test of 76.30 initially. Even higher, the 77.50 zone could provide resistance, defined by the inside swings low in February and March.

On the flipside, if the latest retreat continues, the first serious cluster of support may be found near the intersection of 73.85, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and the aforementioned uptrend line. A conclusive move below that area would turn the outlook to a more neutral one, likely opening the door for the 73.40 area first, before the bears turn their sights to the 71.70 territory.

In brief, the outlook is cautiously positive. A move above 75.60 could turn it clearly positive, whereas a decisive drop back below the 73.85 area would turn it back to neutral.