Technical Analysis – AUDNZD remains bullish, upper boundary of range in reach


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

AUDNZD buyers are nearing the upper boundary of a one-month range following an uptrend which commenced on August 6, from the seven-month low of 1.0262. The pair transitioned into a sideways move as bullish momentum eased but it seems the bulls are now at the wheel again.

The short-term oscillators are picking up, reflecting improving positive directional momentum. The MACD, remaining in the positive region, has moved above its red trigger line, looking to increase further. The RSI and the stochastic %K and %D lines, have turned bullish again and are heading towards their overbought zones. Further backing the positive view, are the upward slopes in all the simple moving averages (SMAs) and moreover, the aligning slopes of the 20- and 50-day SMAs.

To the upside, buyers initially face resistance from the upper boundary at 1.0837 and from the nearby resistance at 1.0855. Overcoming this tough area, the bulls could climb higher to test the 1.0900 resistance, which is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the down leg from 1.0837 to 1.0663, while even higher, the 161.8% Fibo at 1.0950.

To the downside, an initial support area around 1.0730, where the 20- and 50-day SMAs lie, could hinder the drop to 1.0700 – which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up wave from 1.0262 to 1.0837. Piercing below 1.0663, the neighboring support of 1.0630 and the 100-day SMA lower at 1.0606, may interrupt further loses.

In brief, the short-term bias is neutral-to-bullish. However, a break above 1.0837 or below 1.0663 would set the direction.