Technical Analysis – AUDUSD hits a snag at the ceiling of the range

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

AUDUSD appears to be struggling to break above the roof (0.6976) of the sideways market that commenced in mid-June. Currently, the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs) sustain a mostly neutral tone, while the Ichimoku lines and the cloud reflect some improvement in price action.

Further backing the positive picture are the short-term oscillators as well as the 200-period SMA. The MACD, in the positive region, is strengthening above its red trigger line, while the RSI is attempting to decisively break into overbought territory.

In a positive scenario, the price may see early resistance from the upper bound of the consolidation period at 0.6976. If buyers clearly conquer this, the bulls may shoot to challenge the nearly 11-month peak of 0.7064 and the 0.7081 and 0.7100 barriers overhead. If these obstacles fail to prevent further advances, the pair may extend towards the 0.7139 and 0.7158 resistances achieved in April of 2019.

Otherwise, if sellers take control and steer below the red Tenkan-sen line at 0.6947, tough support may develop around the 0.6895 region, where the blue Kijun-sen line, the 50- and 100-period SMAs and Ichimoku cloud currently reside. Diving past this border, the 200-period SMA located at the 0.6831 low, could apply the brakes towards further deterioration in the pair. A successful step underneath may be challenged by the 0.6806 trough and the foundation of the range at 0.6776. Should these give way, a negative move could gain momentum stretching as low as the 0.6713 mark.

Overall, a neutral-to-bullish mode exists in the short-to-medium-term timeframe and a break either above 0.6976 or below 0.6776 may ignite a new direction. However, a shift in price above 0.7064 would turn the outlook bullish.