Technical Analysis – AUDUSD stuck in sideways market; ascent restricted by bears


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

AUDUSD sellers ceased further gains, returning the price beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The bears are now attempting to penetrate below the June low of 0.6831. The MACD’s short-term positive picture and the upward slopes of the mid-Bollinger band and the 40-day SMA, suggest the pair may improve.

However, with the price caught below the downtrend line and the declining 100- and 200-day SMAs, it seems more likely that the sideways move may endure. Further keeping the price below 0.6894 and the 100-day SMA are signals from the RSI and the stochastics, which reflect easing positive momentum – with the RSI falling in bullish territory and the %K having crossed below the red %D line.

If the bears manage to move below the 0.6831 support, the 0.6810 support nearby could apply some pressure. Moving lower, the 40-day SMA and the mid-Bollinger band at 0.6782 and 0.6771, respectively, may prove to be more tough obstacles to drop past, before facing the swing lows of 0.6723 and 0.6709.

Alternatively, if the bulls retake control and steer the price above the 100-day SMA and upper Bollinger band around 0.6860, the resistance region of 0.6894 to 0.6910 could provide downside pressure. Overcoming this could turn traders’ eyes to the downtrend line ahead of the 200-day SMA currently at 0.6960.

Overall, the short-term bias is neutral, holding within the 0.6894 and 0.6670 levels. Yet, a break below 0.6670 could enhance the bigger negative picture, while a break above the trendline and 200-day SMA could put it into question.