Technical Analysis – Copper futures capped by Ichimoku cloud and 50-day SMA enhancing negative outlook

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

Copper futures sellers are flirting with the 2.5280 support from August 5, looking for a push lower to the recent twenty-eight-month low of 2.4785, after returning the price back below the Ichimoku cloud.

The short-term oscillators suggest negative momentum is strengthening. The MACD has declined into the negative region and beneath its red trigger line, while the RSI is heading lower in bearish territory. Furthermore, the downward sloping 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) all back the bigger negative picture.

To the downside, if the sellers manage to break below 2.5280, the commodity could tumble to face the support region of 2.4815 to 2.4690, which encapsulates the recent multi-year low of 2.4785. Surpassing this, the sell-off could next challenge the 2.3940 barrier ahead of the 2.3680 level, which is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the up leg from 2.5395 to 2.9915.

Moving north, if the bulls manage to retake control, initial resistance could come from the Tenkan-sen line around 2.5620, while slightly higher, the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, where the Kijun-sen line and 50-day SMA also reside, may also halt upside corrections. Overcoming the cloud and the 100-day SMA currently at 2.6370, the price could rally towards 2.7135 resistance and the 200-day SMA.

Overall, copper futures remain negative in the short- and medium-term as long as they hold below the 200-day SMA, a break of which could shift the outlook to neutral.