Technical Analysis – Copper futures on sidelines move in ascending triangle


Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

Copper futures with delivery in May have been trading within an ascending triangle over the last couple of weeks, with strong resistance at the 2.2345 barrier. The short-term moving average lines are flattening near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the negative move from 2.5268 to 1.9683 at 2.1815.

Technically, the MACD, holding near the zero level, is heading sideways in the 4-hour chart while the RSI is turning marginally lower at the 50 level, trying to enter in the bearish area. These signals suggest that a trendless market may extend in the near-term, however, some awareness to the development of the triangle is warranted.

If the commodity breaches the 2.1815 strong support and the ascending triangle to the downside, could send the price towards the 2.1297 hurdle, slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci of 2.1000, switching the short-term positive bias to negative. More losses could see the multi-year low of 1.9683, registered on March 19.

Alternatively, a move higher could send the price until the 2.2345 roof ahead of the 100-period SMA and the 2.2476 level, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci mark. A successful attempt above it may drive traders towards the 61.8% Fibo of 2.3138 and the 2.3321 barrier, continuing the bullish sentiment in the near-term.

In brief, copper futures have been moving sideways in the triangle pattern and traders should wait for a decisive close above or below the formation.