Technical Analysis – EURCHF rises after rebound on 20-month bottom

Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

EURCHF continues to rise above the strong support level of the 20-month low of 1.1160, surpassing the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). According to the RSI, positive momentum could push for further gains in the short-term as the indicator picks up steam above 50. The stochastic is advancing in the overbought territory; negative corrections cannot be excluded.

In the positive scenario, where the price continues to expand above yesterday’s high of 1.1280, the pair could move towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 1.1710 to 1.1160, around 1.1290, which stands near the 40-SMA. If the market manages to overcome that area, immediate resistance would come from 1.1305 before steeper bullish actions take the price up to the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.1370.

A reversal to the downside could stall at the bottom of March’s 29 at 1.1160, while sharper downside pressure could take the pair until 1.1000, identified by the inside swing top of August 2016.

Concluding, in the short-term EURCHF has been bullish over the last couple of weeks, with strong resistance the 40-SMA, while a break below 1.1160 could confirm the long-term bearish outlook.