Technical Analysis – EURCHF’s buyers correct to the 23.6% Fibonacci level


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

EURCHF, after a four-month decline, had bulls emerge to propel the price upwards to the 1.0970 resistance looking for further gains. The level is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 1.1475 to 1.0810, and where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently lies.

Failing to breach, the current stalling price at the 23.6% Fibo of 1.0970, coupled with the downward sloping SMAs, suggests that the rally higher may be off the table for now. Additionally, the MACD has not moved into positive territory since May 15 and gradually approaches zero, while the RSI presently in the bullish zone heads to the neutral level.

Deflecting off the 1.0970 resistance the price could find some interference moving south from the 21-day SMA, around 1.0875, before sellers shove lower to test the twenty-eight-month low of 1.0810. If the medium-term trend is rekindled below 1.0810, the pair could fill the gap created back in April of 2017.

If upside muscle overcomes the 1.0970 level, next resistance could come at the 38.2% Fibo of 1.1065. Conquering any hindrance from the 100-day SMA at 1.1100, price may climb higher to the obstacle region of 1.1140 to 1.1160. If surpassed, a run up to the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibo of 1.1220 could unfold.

Overall, the negative picture in the medium term prevails. A shift above 1.1065 could turn the short-term bias positive, whilst a move above the 200-day SMA would turn the medium-term bias, back to neutral.