Technical Analysis – EURGBP creeps sideways below limiting 200-MA


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

EURGBP is currently attempting to jump above the heavy 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which has kept the deterioration of the pair alive. The SMAs are somewhat all flat for now, reflecting the neutral tone of the pair, but an approaching bearish cross of the 200-period SMA by the 100-period one may revive negative tendencies.

The short-term oscillators suggest that positive directional momentum is strengthening. The MACD, in the negative region, has pushed above its red signal line and has neared the zero mark, while the improving RSI has stalled in bullish territory. Furthermore, the stochastic oscillator holds a positive bearing with the %K line having climbed into the overbought area.

If buyers manage to clearly nudge over the fortified 200-period SMA at 0.9044, where the 100-period SMA and upper Bollinger band reside, nearby resistance may develop at the 0.9062 barrier. A run above this hurdle may then face a section of highs from 0.9078 to 0.9086. Sustained gains in the pair could then shoot for the 0.9118 and 0.9148 obstacles ahead of the three-month high of 0.9175.

Otherwise, if the 200-period SMA denies further appreciation, sellers could send the price towards the 50-period SMA at 0.9013 and the 0.9008 support beneath. Further weakening in the pair could see the 0.8968 to 0.8976 key support zone apply the brakes on the decline. Failing to do so, the price may attempt to dive towards the 0.8937 and 0.8911 borders before challenging the region of troughs from 0.8882 until 0.8864.

Concluding, EURGBP in the very short-term timeframe preserves a neutral tone, stuck below the 200-period SMA. That said, a break above 0.9062 or below 0.8968 could see a clear direction begin to unfold.