Technical Analysis – EURJPY advances eyeballed; positive momentum suspended


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

EURJPY is struggling to overcome the region around the 122.00 mark in spite of assisting positive signals. The recent progress from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) appears postponed just below this constricting 122.00 handle, where the upper Bollinger band is currently located.

The gradual inclines in the 100- and 200-day SMAs and the nearing of a bullish crossover of the latter, by the rocketing 50-day SMA, may boost the positive picture in the near-term. Further positive signals are hinted by the short-term oscillators. The MACD, in the positive region, though mostly horizontal has pierced above its red trigger line, while the strengthened stochastic oscillator endorses advancements in price.

To the upside, immediate resistance may emanate from the upper Bollinger band, around recent highs at 121.97 and the nearby 122.11 key obstacle. In the event buyers successfully surpass the 122.11 border, the pair may rally to revisit the 13-month peak of 124.42 before attempting to meet the 125.22 barrier, achieved on May 1.

Otherwise, if sellers head down, initial friction may occur at the mid-Bollinger band at 120.78 and the lows of 120.25. Steering underneath these, a significant support region from the 200-day SMA at 119.79 until the 119.30 trough may deny further loss of ground. This region also includes the nearing bullish overlap, the mid-Bollinger band and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 119.43 of the up leg 114.42 – 124.42. Should sellers dive past this hardened support, they may falter at the 100-day SMA at 118.85 and 118.52 border below.

Summarizing, it appears sellers may confront a more challenging task below the 200-day SMA. That said, a neutral-to-bullish tone may evolve in the near-term with a climb above 122.11.