Technical Analysis – EURJPY recovers losses but negative signals still present

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

EURJPY’s latest rally from a six-month low of 116.11, which recouped all of yesterday’s aggressive drop, has been capped by the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), resulting in the price returning somewhat around the mid-Bollinger band, currently at 118.32.

The technical oscillators also reflect a very short-term stall in the up move. The MACD, deep in the negative zone, has climbed above its red trigger line, while the RSI has stalled marginally above its neutral mark. That said, traders need to be aware of the negative signals displayed by the downward sloping SMAs.

To the upside, initial resistance could come from the 50-period SMA at 119.23 and the adjacent 119.41 swing high. Next, the 100-period SMA at 119.60 could provide some hindrance ahead of the 119.76 high and nearby 200-period SMA at 119.86. Surpassing the 200-period SMA, the upper Bollinger band at 120.31 and neighbouring peak of 120.47 could prevent the pair from seeing the 120.94 and 121.03 tops.

Otherwise, if sellers manage to steer below the mid-Bollinger band, the first distant support may come at 117.33. If selling interest persists, the 116.35 barrier – where the lower Bollinger band also lies – could restrict the retest of the fresh multi-month low of 116.11.

Overall, the short-term bias is neutral-to-bearish below the 119.41 barrier. However, a shift above 119.76 and the 200-period SMA would cement a neutral bias returning and increase the odds for more appreciation in the pair.