Technical Analysis – EURNOK’s decline from record high halts at 50-moving average


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

EURNOK’s aggressive push lower has ceased around the support region of 10.0619 to 10.0550 – the former being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 9.8146 to 10.3110 and the later, the 2018 high of 10.0550 – after tumbling from the all-time high of 10.3110.

The technical indicators suggest that the negative momentum is snowballing. The MACD has slipped back below its red trigger line in the negative region, while the RSI and the stochastics have entered oversold territory. Further backing the negative picture, is the bearish crossovers of the downward sloping 20- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMA) with the 100-period one.

If selling interest continues and the bears manage to pierce below 10.0550, the price may drop to another tough support section of 10.0033 to 9.9914, consisting of the 61.8% Fibo and the 2017 high. Overtaking this region as well could have the price then test the 9.9570 support ahead of the 76.4% Fibo of 9.9317.

If buyers resurface and push the price higher, they could encounter resistance from the 38.2% Fibo of 10.1205 ahead of the 20-period SMA at 10.1435. Climbing further, the area around 10.1825 where the 50- and 100-period SMAs lie, could apply some pressure before the 23.6% Fibo of 10.1935.

Overall, the short-term bias is bearish and a close below 9.9317 would increase the odds for further declines.