Technical Analysis – EURUSD rushes to 13-month peak; strongly bullish in short term


Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

EURUSD surged to a fresh 13-month peak near the 1.1500 handle earlier today, continuing the aggressive buying interest that started on the 34-month low of 1.0770 on February 20. The pair seems to be strongly bullish in the very short-term after it surpassed the 1.1450 barrier. However, the stochastic oscillator suggests an overbought market and a downside correction may be on cards.

The MACD and the RSI are still moving higher in positive territories, signaling more gains. Also, the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) are ready for a bullish crossover if the price continues the upside movement.

If buyers push above 1.1450 and the 13-month high of 1.1495, initial resistance could come from the 1.1515 mark, taken from the top on January 2019. Climbing higher, another peak from January 2019 (1.1570), could come into focus ahead of 1.1620, achieved on October 2018. Above that, a rollercoaster is expected towards the 1.1815 barrier, registered in September 2018.

Otherwise, to the downside, immediate support is facing near the 1.1410 inside swing. Moving lower, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.0770 to 1.1495 of 1.1330 could be revisited. The next hurdles are 1.1285 and 1.1240 before the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.1225.

Summarizing, the very short-term bias has turned bullish but if the price shifts above the 1.1570, the picture could turn positive in the longer timeframe as well. Though, a potential downside correction may come first before another bullish rally.